SunSirs: High Supply Meets Weak Demand: Calcium Carbide Prices Plunge

Since April, the domestic calcium carbide market has taken a sharp downturn, with prices plummeting rapidly from their early-month highs. Prices in major producing regions have fallen by nearly 20% cumulatively, and the industry has swiftly shifted from profitability to losses. The core market dynamics have shifted from “cost support and tight supply-demand balance” to “oversupply, weak demand, and easing costs.” Price transmission between upstream and downstream sectors has accelerated, leading to a comprehensive contraction of profits across the industrial chain.

I. Price Trends: A Cliff-Like Drop, Led by Major Production Areas

As of April 13, the average price in the domestic calcium carbide market stood at 2,456 RMB/ton, down 9.84% from 2,774 RMB/ton at the beginning of April. The ex-factory price in the major production area of Wuhai fell to 2,300 RMB/ton, a cumulative monthly decrease of 450 RMB/ton, representing a 14.8% drop. Regional divergence is evident: the decline in production areas (Northwest) was greater than in consumption areas (East China and South China), reflecting more pronounced inventory and shipment pressures in production regions.

II. Price Transmission Between Upstream and Downstream Sectors and the Logic Behind Price Fluctuations

1. Upstream Costs: Weakening Lanchan and electricity prices lead to rapidly fading support

Semi-coke (core raw material): Prices rose slightly in late March but fell in early April as raw coal prices dropped and demand weakened. In major production areas, medium-grade semi-coke prices fell from 795–830 RMB/ton to 750–765 RMB/ton, a decrease of 45 RMB/ton. Semi-coke accounts for approximately 25% of calcium carbide production costs; while the price drop alleviated cost pressure, the reduction was far smaller than the decline in calcium carbide prices.

Electricity (Major Energy Cost): Electricity prices in Northwest China remain stable, but the industry’s high electricity consumption—3,200 kWh per ton—means cost rigidity remains strong.

Limestone: Prices are stable, with limited impact on market fluctuations.

Conclusion: The cost savings from raw materials are insufficient to offset the decline in calcium carbide prices, causing the industry to shift from profit to loss. Enterprises in the Wuhai region are incurring a loss of RMB162 per ton, an increase of RMB364 compared to the beginning of the month.

2. Supply Side: Profit Recovery → Accelerated Restart → Supply Glut

In March, the recovery of calcium carbide profitability led to the restart of 19 calcium carbide furnaces, raising the operating rate from 70% to 80.5%.

In April, capacity was released in a concentrated manner, with utilization rates outside Xinjiang reaching 71% (up 7% month-on-month); as maintenance at配套 PVC enterprises increased, calcium carbide originally intended for internal use was diverted to external sales, further exacerbating the market supply glut.

Rising corporate inventories and low-price sales intensified the price collapse.

3. Demand Side: Weak PVC + Concentrated Maintenance, Shrinking Essential Demand

PVC (accounting for 78% of calcium carbide demand): Futures prices plummeted, export tax rebates were canceled, and demand from real estate and pipe manufacturers remained lackluster.

In April, PVC producers conducted concentrated spring maintenance, with operating rates dropping from 84.7% to 77.4%; downstream buyers are purchasing only to meet essential needs, refraining from stockpiling, and exhibiting strong bearish sentiment.

Demand for niche products such as BDO and PVA remains weak as well, failing to provide support.

Core Logic: Supply ↑ + Demand ↓ + Declining Costs → Accelerated Price Decline.

III. Impact on the Industry Chain

Calcium Carbide Sector: Losses are widening; enterprises are proactively reducing production capacity and shutting down furnaces for maintenance, potentially leading to a gradual restructuring of supply and demand.

PVC (Calcium Carbide Process): Costs fell by 7.9% (to 5,083 RMB/ton), but product prices declined in tandem, keeping profits under pressure.

Semi-coke: Weakening demand and continued price declines are creating a negative feedback loop.

IV. Market Outlook

High inventories + weak demand; prices are expected to fluctuate on the weaker side with further downside potential.

Key Variables: Timing of PVC maintenance completion, the pace of downstream restocking, and trends in lignite and coal prices. Under the triple pressure of high supply, weak demand, and insufficient cost support, calcium carbide prices have rapidly returned to fundamentals. The industry chain is seeking a new equilibrium through price declines, profit redistribution, and supply contraction; the near term remains predominantly weak, with attention in the latter half of the month focused on signals of reduced supply and a recovery in demand.

As an integrated internet platform providing benchmark prices, on April 14, the benchmark price for calcium carbide, as reported by SunSirs, stood at RMB2,456.00 per ton—a decrease of 9.84% compared to the beginning of the month (RMB2,724.00 per ton).

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