SunSirs: Driven by Market Sentiment, the Trading Board Trended Downward, and Spot Prices for Silicomanganese Followed Suit

Price trend

Last week, the silicomanganese market experienced volatile downward movement. As the situation in the Middle East entered a negotiation phase and crude oil prices declined, market sentiment weighed on silicomanganese; futures contracts trended downward in tandem, and spot prices also weakened. On the cost side, manganese ore prices consolidated; alloy producers demonstrated low willingness to procure, while traders showed an increased inclination to offload inventory. According to data from SunSirs' Commodity Market Analysis System, as of the end of last week, market quotes for silicomanganese (spec: FeMn68Si18) in the Ningxia region ranged from approximately 5,880 to 6,000 RMB/ton. The average market price stood at 5,936.00 RMB/ton, representing a month-on-month decline of 3.32%.

Influencing Factors

Supply Side: Last week, production cuts and maintenance activities at alloy plants continued. Specifically, alloy output in Inner Mongolia saw a significant decline last week. According to market surveys, the implementation of these production cuts is currently being strictly enforced; most facilities are adhering to a 30% reduction plan, while others have directly taken furnaces offline for maintenance. Looking ahead, while a few new production capacities are expected to begin yielding output, other plants that have completed maintenance will only resume production depending on market conditions. Overall, alloy production is projected to continue its downward trend. In Ningxia, alloy plants are also undergoing phased production cuts and maintenance; output was estimated to have continued its decline last week, although plant inventories remain relatively high.

Southern Region: Due to the rapid decline in market prices, factories in the South continue to face difficulties in resuming production. As of April 10, overall electricity rates in the South remain largely unchanged; moreover, with forward costs for manganese ore remaining high, the region faces significant overall cost pressures. Last week, a major factory in the South announced plans to cut production; consequently, it is anticipated that operating rates in the Southern region are unlikely to see any increase in April.

According to statistics, the operating rate of silicomanganese enterprises nationwide stood at 27.8% last week—a decrease of 3.3% compared to the previous week. The average daily output was 23,190 tons, down 2,370 tons.

Based on incomplete statistics, as of April 10, the total inventory held by silicomanganese enterprises nationwide amounted to 377,500 tons—a month-on-month increase of 5,700 tons. Specifically: Inner Mongolia held 57,000 tons (down 2,300 tons month-on-month); Ningxia held 296,000 tons (up 1,000 tons); Guangxi held 3,000 tons (up 500 tons); Guizhou held 2,000 tons (up 1,000 tons); the Shanxi/Gansu/Shaanxi region held 9,000 tons (up 4,500 tons); and the Sichuan/Yunnan/Chongqing region held 10,000 tons (up 1,000 tons).

Upstream costs: Last week, the northern manganese ore market was generally weak, with port spot prices under pressure and declining. This was mainly due to the sharp decline in ferrosilicon futures prices, which increased downstream resistance to high-priced raw materials, leading to a drop of 1-2 RMB/ton in manganese ore prices. Manganese ore prices at Qinzhou Port showed mixed trends, with high-grade lump ore prices remaining high on the international market, resulting in a significant price inversion in the south. Spot demand was limited, with few quotes and minimal market transactions last week.

According to market data, current prices at Tianjin Port are quoted at 46–48.5 RMB/MTU for Australian lump manganese ore, 42.5–43.5 RMB/MTU for semi-carbonate ore, and 47–48 RMB/MTU for Gabonese lump ore; at Qinzhou Port, prices are quoted at 45.5 RMB/MTU for Australian lump ore, 39.5–40 RMB/MTU for semi-carbonate ore, and 44 RMB/MTU for Gabonese lump ore.

On the international market front, South32 has released its manganese ore price offers to China for May 2026. Specifically, the offer for Australian lump ore (42% Mn) stands at $5.90 per dry metric ton unit (CIF major Chinese ports)—an increase of $0.65 per unit from the previous month—while the offer for South African semi-carbonate ore (37% Mn) is set at $5.40 per dry metric ton unit (CIF major Chinese ports)—up $0.80 per unit month-on-month.

Eramet Comilog has released its manganese ore price quotes for China for May 2026. The quoted price for 44.5% Mn Gabon manganese ore (lump ore) is $5.75 per dry metric ton unit, representing an increase of $0.50 per dry metric ton unit compared to the previous round of pricing.

Jupiter has released its manganese ore shipment quotes to China for May 2026, pricing South African semi-carbonate manganese ore at US$5.35 per dmtu (CIF major Chinese ports)—an increase of US$0.60 per dmtu compared to the previous month.

Ntsimbintle Mining (NMT) has announced its manganese ore quotes to China for May 2026, pricing 36% Mn South African semi-carbonate manganese ore (lump ore) at US$5.35 per dmtu (CIF major Chinese ports)—an increase of US$0.60 per dmtu compared to the previous month.

Regarding demand: Steel mills in East China and other regions have commenced their concentrated bidding for silicon-manganese. Some have already released their procurement prices, which are largely clustered within the range of 6,250 to 6,470 RMB/ton.

In other news, Rizhao Shansteel plans to tender for 500 tons of silicomanganese alloy, with the bidding deadline set for 17:00 on April 10. Zhongnan Shares plans to tender for 1,000 tons of silicomanganese alloy, with the bidding deadline set for 11:30 on April 10. Baosteel Shares plans to tender for 1,800 tons of silicomanganese alloy (1,400 tons for Baoshan and 400 tons for Zhanjiang), with the bidding deadline set for 16:00 on April 10. Wuhan Iron & Steel plans to tender for 1,400 tons of silicomanganese alloy, with the bidding deadline set for 19:00 on April 10. Lingyuan Iron & Steel plans to tender for 3,250 tons of silicomanganese alloy, with the bidding deadline set for 13:00 on April 13. Angang Shares plans to tender for 3,000 tons of silicomanganese alloy; the bidding results are pending release.

Market outlook

Overall, the supply of silicomanganese is clearly contracting, creating a mismatch with the recovering demand. Furthermore, as subsequent shipments of high-cost manganese ore gradually arrive at ports, spot market costs are set to shift to a higher tier, providing strong underlying support for the overall market trend. Nevertheless, in the short term, it remains essential to continue monitoring key indicators—such as fluctuations in futures prices and marginal shifts in supply-demand dynamics—for the latest updates. SunSirs forecasts that the silicomanganese market is likely to maintain its high-level trajectory in the near term.

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