SunSirs: Energy and Chemical Futures Plummeted Across the Board, Highlighting the Resilience of China PET's Resistance to Decline

According to reports from authoritative media such as CCTV, on April 7th local time, US President Trump announced that, at the request of Pakistan, he agreed to suspend bombing and military strikes against Iran for a period of two weeks. The PET bottle chip market is undergoing a price reassessment driven by emotional transmission, rather than a simple cost driven adjustment.

1. The sharp drop in oil prices

Affected by the news of the ceasefire in the Middle East, Nenghua Futures plummeted across the board, marking the largest single day decline this year. As of the morning of the 8th Beijing time, the main contract of WTI crude oil futures plummeted more than 19% during trading, falling below the $100/barrel mark and hitting a low of $91.3/barrel, marking the largest daily decline since April 2020; Brent crude oil futures fell by about 13% -17%, falling below $92 per barrel for the first time since the end of March.

Polyester chain PTA (TA): 6,574 RMB/ton, down 7.88%, ethylene glycol (EG): 5,357 RMB/ton, down 8.61%, short fiber (PF): 8,182 RMB/ton, down 5.93%, bottle flakes (PR): 8,156 RMB/ton, down 7.83%.

The core reason for the sharp decline of Nenghua Futures across the board

Geopolitical risk recedes: US Iran ceasefire, disappearance of oil geopolitical premium.

Supply and demand bearish: US crude oil inventories surge by 12.9 million barrels, OPEC+ plans to withdraw from production cuts.

Capital stampede: In the early stage, long positions were concentrated and liquidated, and chemical products experienced a comprehensive limit down trend.

1. PET market: The decline is significantly smaller than that of raw materials, and the resistance to decline is once again highlighted

Affected by the significant weakening of crude oil and polyester raw materials, the price of PET bottle chips is under pressure and declining. As of the morning of April 8th, the spot price of polyester bottle chips in East China has dropped significantly to 8,380-8,600 RMB/ton compared to the previous trading day.

However, the low inventory pattern in the market provides a strong buffer for prices. The current available inventory days for bottle chip production enterprises are only about 10 days, and the tight supply of goods puts no pressure on the holders to lower prices and reduce inventory. Even if there is a loosening of the cost side, the space for proactive concessions is still limited.

The supply side also shows a structural contraction trend: the capacity utilization rate of domestic PET equipment remains at 72%, lower than the same period in previous years; Combined with the ongoing impact of the international PET leader Indorama's force majeure event, the overall supply side support is strong.

The demand side has rigid support. At present, it is the traditional peak consumption season in April, and the operating rates of downstream industries such as soft drinks and edible oils remain at 70% -80%. The continuous release of essential procurement has effectively supported the prices of bottled tablets.

In summary, the resonance of low inventory, supply contraction, and rigid demand support has resulted in PET prices showing significantly stronger resilience in this round of raw material decline than upstream.

1. Future forecast

Short term (1-2 weeks): short-term recovery, high volatility

Core judgment: Strong spot and weak futures, stable first and then rebound, difficult to fall deeply

In stock (East China Water Bottle Grade)

Range: 8,500-8,800 RMB/ton

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