SunSirs: Behind the 9.18% Weekly Surge: Propylene Hits Another New High—Should You Chase the Rally or Wait and See?

Market Review:

Last week, the domestic propylene market exhibited a strong, unidirectional upward trend. According to monitoring data from SunSirs, as of April 8, the benchmark price for propylene climbed to 9,591.00 RMB/ton. Compared to the level at the start of the week (April 1)—8,784.33 RMB/ton—this represents a weekly increase of 9.18%. Prices not only broke through their previous plateau but also approached their historical peak within the past year (9,701.00 RMB/ton).

Key Drivers:

Robust support from downstream demand has been the key driver behind the recent upward trend in propylene prices. Profit margins for major downstream products—such as polypropylene (PP)—remain healthy, and operating rates have been sustained. As of April 8, the benchmark price for PP (wire drawing grade) stood at 9,666.67 RMB/ton; this represents a 4.50% increase compared to the beginning of the month (9,250.00 RMB/ton), thereby generating steady demand for raw material propylene. Concurrently, maintenance shutdowns at certain upstream facilities have led to a slight tightening of supply, a factor that has collectively contributed to the rise in propylene prices.

Market Outlook

In the short term, there is a possibility that propylene prices will continue their upward momentum, testing previous highs (near 9,700 RMB/ton). However, one must remain vigilant; the exhaustion of bullish factors or weak downstream demand could trigger sharp price fluctuations. Moving forward, close attention must be paid to the profitability and operating rates of downstream products—such as polypropylene—as well as to the operational dynamics of upstream propylene production facilities. These factors will be critical in determining whether propylene prices can stabilize at current high levels or undergo a directional shift.

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