SunSirs: Geopolitical Tensions Heighten Supply Risks; Recent Synthetic Fiber Market Prices Continue to Rise

Recent synthetic fiber market prices have continued to rise, with significant increases in mainstream varieties such as polyester and nylon. This round of price hikes is the result of multiple factors converging, including rising crude oil costs, supply-side contraction, and resilient downstream demand. Combined with SunSirs’ latest benchmark prices released on April 8, the price transmission across the industry chain and the market landscape have become clearer.

From the raw material perspective, crude oil serves as the core cost driver in the chemical fiber industry chain, and its price fluctuations directly trigger price increases across the entire chain. On April 8, the spot price of Brent crude oil reached $144.42 per barrel, setting a new historical high. Geopolitical conflicts have intensified supply risks, and costs have rapidly been passed down the chain: “crude oil → naphtha → PX → PTA/MEG → polyester fiber.” On that day, SunSirs’ naphtha benchmark price was RMB8,693.33 per ton, PX (paraxylene) was RMB 9,700.00 per ton, PTA was RMB 6,932.90 per ton, and MEG (ethylene glycol) was RMB 5,360.00 per ton. Prices for all intermediate raw materials remained at high levels, which has driven up both the base production costs of synthetic fibers and processing and logistics expenses, becoming the primary driver of price increases.

According to CCTV Finance, China’s textile industry holds a leading position globally, and synthetic fibers—the core raw material of the textile industry—are directly linked to crude oil prices. Since synthetic fiber products rely on basic chemical raw materials derived from petroleum, every round of crude oil price hikes is directly reflected in companies’ production processes. Looking at the overall market, synthetic fiber prices have risen to varying degrees: for example, polyester filament—a major product category within polyester—rose from approximately RMB 7,180 per ton in March to RMB 9,300 per ton; weekly price increases for multiple nylon varieties exceeded 6%, with some grades jumping by RMB 2,000 per ton in a single day.

The supply side is experiencing structural contraction, which is supporting upward price movements. Amid high raw material costs, operating rates at some intermediate production facilities have been reduced, leading to tight supplies of raw materials such as PTA and MEG, which are further impacting the chemical fiber sector. New capacity additions in the chemical fiber industry are limited, and the expansion cycle is nearing its end. Supply of conventional products has decreased as companies shift production to high-value-added products. Combined with factors such as periodic plant maintenance and energy consumption controls, the industry’s overall supply cannot expand rapidly. A tight supply-demand balance has become evident, providing supply-side support for price increases. Additionally, PTA is about to enter a period of large-scale maintenance, with supply expected to contract.

Demand is showing clear divergence, with both inelastic demand and growth in emerging sectors providing a combined floor. As the largest downstream sector for synthetic fibers, the traditional textile industry maintains steady demand, supporting stable sales volumes for polyester filament and staple fiber. On April 8, the SunSirs benchmark price for polyester POY was 9,312.50 RMB /ton, and for polyester FDY, 9,478.33 RMB /ton. and polyester DTY at 10,612.50 RMB /ton. Although prices fluctuated slightly, they remained generally firm. In the nylon sector, driven by rising raw material costs and support from export orders, price increases were more pronounced; on that day, the SunSirs nylon DTY benchmark price reached 18,320.00 RMB /ton, with market sentiment significantly outperforming the polyester segment. Surge in demand from sectors such as new energy and new textile materials has driven up the price levels of high-value-added chemical fiber products, becoming a key growth driver on the demand side.

From the perspective of price trends, short-term chemical fiber prices remain cost-driven. High crude oil prices will continue to support prices across the industry chain, and under tight supply-demand conditions, prices are more likely to rise than fall. Medium- to long-term trends depend on geopolitical developments, oil price movements, and the strength of demand recovery. If geopolitical tensions ease and oil prices decline, cost support will weaken, potentially leading to a correction from current highs; if oil prices remain elevated, prices will continue to face upward pressure. The pace of downstream demand recovery will determine the scope for cost pass-through; if end-user demand remains persistently weak, high prices will suppress procurement, and the industry may enter a phase of production cuts to stabilize prices.

Overall, the chemical fiber industry has entered a phase of dual dynamics between costs and demand, resulting in increased price volatility. In the short term, prices are likely to remain at elevated levels with fluctuations; in the medium to long term, the market will gradually return to being driven by supply and demand fundamentals. Moving forward, it will be necessary to continuously monitor international oil prices, plant operating rates, and changes in downstream orders to assess market trends and identify price inflection points.

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