SunSirs: The Retail Price of China Refined Oil Products Has Achieved Six Consecutive Increases in This Round

The domestic refined oil price adjustment window has opened at 24:00 on April 7th. The retail price of refined oil has been raised again, and the retail price of refined oil in 2026 will achieve six increases, zero decreases, and one suspension. During this cycle, the crude oil market has fluctuated significantly, and the crude oil change rate remains positive. The retail price of refined oil is about to rise six times in a row.

Entering this pricing cycle, the international oil price trend has risen. As of the 6th, the settlement price of the May WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $112.41 per barrel, while Brent crude oil futures rose and the settlement price of the June contract was $109.77 per barrel. During this round of price adjustment, crude oil prices fluctuated at high levels, driven by the escalation of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East. Market concerns about long-term disruptions to oil supply were concentrated, compounded by multiple factors such as differences in contract delivery, bullish expectations from investment banks, and OPEC policy trends. The US Iran conflict shows no signs of easing, with the Strait of Hormuz blocked and only a few ships able to pass through. Oil producing countries such as Saudi Arabia have been forced to cut production, increasing supply risks and continuing to support oil prices. In addition, with weak global demand and concerns that intensified geopolitical conflicts may drag down the economy and oil consumption, the Federal Reserve is also unlikely to cut interest rates in the short term. Overall, crude oil prices have risen this cycle. As of the 7th, on the 10th working day, in order to mitigate the impact of international oil price increases on the domestic market, the country continued to take regulatory measures on refined oil prices. According to the pricing mechanism of refined oil products, starting from 24:00 on April 7th, the prices of domestic gasoline and diesel (standard products) should be increased by 800 RMB and 770 RMB per ton respectively. After regulation, the actual increase is 420 RMB and 400 RMB; Converted to an increase in price, 92 octane gasoline increases by 0.32 RMB per liter, with a decrease of 0.31 RMB; Zero diesel fuel increases by 0.34 RMB per liter, with a decrease of 0.32 RMB.

Regarding gasoline: Due to the obstruction of crude oil transportation and the cancellation of long-term contracts, some refineries are considering reducing production, suspending orders, and tightening plans. The spot prices of Shandong's refineries remain high, coupled with low domestic finished oil inventories, which are at a seasonally low level. After supply tightens, spot liquidity further tightens, supporting price strength. Recently, due to the warm spring and blooming flowers, travel has increased. However, the increasing popularity of new energy vehicles has resulted in lower than expected demand performance, and the gasoline market has fluctuated at a high level due to the boost of crude oil.

In terms of diesel: Recently, the supply side of the diesel market has decreased, and in terms of demand, spring plowing has started and logistics have resumed. Construction sites and projects in various regions have started one after another, and the demand for diesel in the market is gradually recovering; The downstream willingness to take over has increased, and the supply and demand pattern is relatively tight in the short term, with the diesel market maintaining a high level.

Looking at the future, the situation in the Middle East remains highly uncertain. The navigation status of the Strait of Hormuz and the subsequent direction of the US Iran and Israeli Palestinian conflicts will continue to dominate the short-term trend of oil prices. It is worth noting that the short-term fee risk of the Strait Joint Management Agreement drafted by Iran and Oman still benefits oil prices, and oil prices will remain high in the near future. From a domestic perspective, the short-term operating rate of refineries has declined, and the supply of refined oil products has decreased. It is expected that the gasoline and diesel market will maintain a high level in the later stage.

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