SunSirs:DR Congo Issued New Regulations on Cobalt Export Quotas, and Cobalt Prices Plunged

Cobalt prices fell sharply on April 3

According to the commodity cobalt market analysis system of SunSirs, the price of cobalt stood at 415,500 RMB/ton on April 3—a significant decline from the 426,000 RMB/ton recorded on April 1, representing a drop of 2.46%. Domestic spot prices for cobalt fell sharply throughout April. The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) released further new regulations regarding the control of cobalt export quotas: quotas for Q4 2025 may be extended until the end of April, while Q1 2026 quotas may be extended until the end of June. Consequently, a concentrated volume of cobalt ore shipments from the DRC is anticipated in April; however, due to delays in the approval process for cobalt intermediates, the actual pace of cobalt shipments from the DRC remains sluggish. With market expectations pointing to a temporary increase in supply—creating a scenario of rising supply amidst waning demand—cobalt prices experienced a steep decline in April.

Overseas Markets: Cobalt Prices Declined in April

As evident from the MB cobalt price chart, cobalt prices in April reversed the upward trend observed in March, entering a phase of volatile decline. This drop in international cobalt prices serves as a bearish signal for the domestic cobalt market.

Supply Side: New Export Quota Regulations for Cobalt Mines in the DRC Led to Increased Supply

As the supplier of 70% of the world's raw cobalt, the Democratic Republic of the Congo’s mining regulatory body has officially issued new regulations governing cobalt export quotas. These rules establish a final compliance deadline for global mining companies: mining enterprises must fulfill all unutilized export quotas from the fourth quarter of 2025 by April 30, 2026. Any quotas remaining unused after this deadline will be fully forfeited and reallocated to the national strategic reserve. Furthermore, the regulations clarify that export quotas for the first quarter of 2026 may be extended for shipment until June 30, 2026, allowing them to be executed concurrently with the second-quarter quotas; the total quotas allocated for the entirety of 2026 remain fully valid. With the introduction of these new regulations, cobalt shipments from the DRC are expected to surge in April; this anticipated short-term increase in supply is likely to intensify downward pressure on cobalt prices.

Market Overview and Outlook

According to data analysts at SunSirs, the Democratic Republic of the Congo has issued new regulations governing cobalt ore export quotas. In the short term, an increase in cobalt ore shipments is anticipated, leading to a rise in market supply. However, due to various constraints within the new quota system—particularly regarding operations and logistics—and delays in the approval process for Congolese cobalt exports, the execution of allocated quotas by most enterprises has fallen significantly behind schedule. Consequently, the actual increase in market supply remains limited, as does the downward pressure on cobalt prices. Overall, given a scenario of rising supply and weak demand, cobalt prices are expected to experience a slight decline in April.

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