SunSirs: China Wood Pulp Prices Are Strong and Weak, with Mainly Short-term Low-level Fluctuations

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the price of softwood pulp fluctuated weakly and slightly decreased last week, and the current trend is also weak. The price of hardwood pulp remained stable after a slight increase. On April 3, 2026, the average market price of softwood pulp in Shandong Province was 5,150 RMB/ton, a decrease of 1.28% compared to the average price on March 29. On April 3rd, the average market price of hardwood pulp in Shandong Province was 4,626.67 RMB/ton, an increase of 0.58% compared to the average price on March 29th.

From the perspective of the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, the current position of softwood pulp on the 10th, 20th, and 30th is at a low level. However, the 10th moving average (red line) accelerated its downward trend around March 24th and began to turn upwards, quickly crossing the price line and forming a clear short-term stop signal. The short-term sentiment of funds has shifted from extremely weak to recovery. However, the 30 day moving average and 20 day moving average continue to decline and show a bearish trend, with prices consistently running below the long-term moving averages. The medium-term bearish trend has not fundamentally reversed the market's downward momentum. Overall, this is a technical oversold rebound rather than a trend reversal.

Market supply and demand impact

On the supply side, the overseas pulp mill Mets has a production capacity of 690,000 tons of softwood pulp, which will be discontinued at the end of March. Suzano and other hardwood pulp mills have plans to reduce production, but the short-term supply contraction has not been effectively realized, which has limited support for domestic spot goods. Suzano's Asian hardwood pulp rose by $20/ton in April, while softwood pulp remained stable or slightly decreased; The strong external market has raised the cost of forward delivery, but the domestic acceptance is low and the actual transaction discount is significant.

The trend of domestic main port pulp inventory shifting from cumulative to destocking in this cycle. As of April 2, 2026, the sample inventory of China's mainstream pulp ports was 2.352 million tons, a decrease of 1.8% compared to the previous period's destocking of 43,000 tons. This cycle, the inventory of pulp at the mainstream domestic port of Qingdao Port showed a slight accumulation trend, and the daily average shipment speed in the port did not change much compared to the previous cycle; The inventory of Changshu Port shows a trend of destocking, and the shipment volume in the port has increased compared to the previous period, exceeding 100,000 tons; The inventory levels of other ports show varying degrees of accumulation and depletion, maintaining a normal inventory cycle adjustment.

In terms of demand, the current downstream operating rates for white cards, double glue, and household paper are 75% -82%, with a slight decrease compared to the previous period; The number of shutdowns in small and medium-sized paper mills has increased, with a focus on replenishing inventory due to urgent needs. There is no centralized procurement plan, which puts pressure on traders to sell and reduce volume. In addition, the price increase of finished paper is hindered and profits are meager. Paper mills have a strong willingness to purchase at low prices and are resistant to high priced pulp, which limits the rebound space of pulp prices.

In terms of futures: Last week, pulp futures prices fluctuated weakly and declined, with spot discounts converging and hardwood pulp being stronger than softwood pulp. As of April 3, 2026, the opening price of the main contract for pulp futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 5,086 RMB/ton, the closing price was 5,096 RMB/ton, the highest price was 5,100 RMB/ton, the trading volume was 141,600 lots, and the position was 130,407 lots.

The wood pulp analyst from SunSirs believes that the current external cost support can only support the bottom and cannot drive the rise. The downstream market is more cautious, speculative demand is weak, and traders have high inventory and mainly sell without hoarding intention. It is expected that the short-term wood pulp prices will mainly fluctuate at a low level.

SunSirs has been continuously tracking price data for over 200 commodities for nearly 20 years, please contact support@sunsirs.com for subscription.