SunSirs: Expected Short-term Peak Season Surge, China PET Bottle Chip Market Showed High Volatility Last Week

Last week (3.31-4.3), the PET bottle chip market showed a high volatility trend, initially suppressed and then rising, driven by a three-way game of cost, tight supply, and cautious demand. As of April 3rd, according to the price data from SunSirs, the weekly average price of East China water bottle grade spot goods is 8,780 RMB/ton; At the beginning of the week, due to the easing of geopolitical tensions and the decline in oil prices, the price dropped from around 8,800 RMB/ton to 8,600-8,650 RMB/ton. The week was dominated by low positions and downstream demand small orders. Starting from Thursday, the price rebounded due to the maintenance of PTA major factories and the strengthening of the basis. On Friday, the mainstream price was reported at 8,700-8,750 RMB/ton, mainly supported by strong costs, tight supply, and cautious demand games.

Core market analysis

Cost side: Geopolitics+Oil Prices, Strong Support

The situation in the Middle East is tense, and international crude oil is fluctuating at high levels (around Brent $118/barrel)

PTA major factory maintenance, strengthening foundation, and rising raw material costs

The production cost of bottle slices is about 7,509 RMB/ton, with a gross profit of 443 RMB/ton, and there is still profit

Supply side: Low production and tight spot availability

Industry operating rate of 71.7% (slightly increased month on month)

Large factories are controlling their sales volume and reducing contract goods, resulting in low social inventory for six months

Lack of spot circulation, difficulty in obtaining goods, and strengthening basis

Demand side: Expected peak season, but high price suppression

Domestic: Beverage peak season stocking has started, but high prices suppress procurement, downstream orders are made on demand to digest inventory

• Exports: 430,000 tons exported in February (month on month -15.39%), but still increased year-on-year, supported by overseas inventory replenishment

Outlook for the future market (based on the commodity market system of SunSirs for predicting future price trends)

Short term (1-3 weeks): Strong fluctuations at high levels, peak season surges

Trend characteristics: The short-term moving average (10 days) shows an upward trend, while the medium-term moving average (20 days) shows a downward trend. Currently, there are signs of the short-term moving average surpassing the long-term moving average, indicating strong short-term upward momentum.

Location characteristics: The short-term moving average (10 days) is at a high level (1 point) in the 5th range, the 20 day moving average is at the middle level (3 points) in the 5th range, and the 30 day moving average is at a high level (1 point) in the 5th range.

Core judgment: Strong consolidation in the range of 8,500-9,000 RMB/ton, with a potential short-term impact of 9,200 RMB/ton.

Risk points: significant drop in oil prices, intensified resistance to downstream high prices, and slowdown in procurement.

Mid term (1-3 months): fluctuating and falling back, gradually returning to a rational range

Location characteristics: The current price is in a one-year super high state, with a premium of 20% compared to the median value of 7,355 RMB/ton and a premium of 43.1% compared to the average value of 6,168.75 RMB/ton. The position is consistently low, and the pressure of high-level correction continues to accumulate;

Trend characteristics:

New production capacity release: Approximately 1.35 million tons will be added in 2026, with concentrated production in the second half of the year and loose supply.

• End of peak season: Beverage demand weakened by the end of Q3, and downstream entered the destocking stage.

Cost loosening: PX will increase production capacity by the end of the year, PTA processing fees will be repaired, and cost support will be weakened.

Supply and demand shift: from tight balance to weak balance/slight easing.

Core judgment: The price gradually falls back to 8,000-8,600 RMB/ton, and the average price has decreased compared to the first half of the year.

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