SunSirs: Amidst Sluggish Demand, Cobalt Prices Fluctuated Downward in March

In March 2026, the global cobalt market exhibited a market dynamic characterized by "entrenched high levels and narrow-range fluctuations." Both domestic spot prices and overseas futures prices generally remained at elevated levels. This trend was primarily driven by a confluence of factors, including the implementation of production quotas in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), geopolitical conflicts, structural divergences in supply and demand, and macroeconomic logistics costs. Despite short-term volatility, these fluctuations did not alter the fundamental market logic: a tight supply outlook in the medium to long term, rendering prices more prone to rising than falling. Specific market details are as follows:

Cobalt prices fluctuated and declined in March

According to the commodity cobalt market analysis system of SunSirs, the price of cobalt stood at 426,000 RMB/ton on April 1. This represents a fluctuating decline of 2.89% compared to the price of 438,700 RMB/ton recorded on March 1. Throughout March, domestic spot cobalt prices generally remained within a high range, exhibiting a trend characterized by "stabilization at high levels and narrowing fluctuations," with distinct signs of a seller-dominated market. During March, domestic spot cobalt prices primarily traded within the 429,000–433,000 RMB/ton range; price fluctuations were limited, and no unidirectional market trends emerged. Concurrently, the domestic ex-factory price for cobalt sulfate (20.5%) remained stable between 96,000 and 98,000 RMB/ton—a slight uptick from late February—with sellers maintaining firm quotes. Meanwhile, the price of imported cobalt hydroxide (30%) held steady throughout the month within the range of 25.6 to 26.8 USD/lb, as the fundamental market condition of extremely tight raw material supplies showed no signs of easing.

Overseas Markets: Narrow-Range Fluctuation, Prices Stabilizing

In March, the London Metal Exchange (LME) cobalt contract exhibited a trend of narrow fluctuation and overall high-level stability, though trading activity remained relatively subdued. Throughout the month, the trading range for LME cobalt prices shifted slightly upward compared to previous periods, hovering primarily within the $55,840–$56,290 per tonne range; daily price swings were minimal, with opening and closing prices remaining unchanged on most trading days. As of March 28, LME cobalt futures closed flat at $56,290 per tonne. On March 30, the LME three-month cobalt contract maintained its high-level position without significant volatility; overall, prices edged slightly higher compared to the beginning of the month, with fluctuations contained within a 1% range, and no distinct drivers for a sustained directional upward or downward movement emerged.

Key Market Drivers

Supply Side: The long-term tight supply landscape remains unchanged, though conditions are locally easing in the short term

In March, the supply side of the cobalt market was characterized by "long-term structural tightness with no substantial short-term easing," driven primarily by policies in major producing nations, geopolitical events, and logistics costs. From a long-term fundamental perspective, global cobalt supply faces a rigid constraint imposed by export quotas in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). The export quota for 2026 stands at only 96,600 tons—a 55% decline compared to the actual supply volume in 2024—and it is projected that the effective local supply available for export will account for less than 40% of total production, resulting in a persistent tightness in the global supply of cobalt raw materials. In March, the DRC introduced new sampling regulations allowing companies to "ship goods while disputes are pending" in cases involving testing discrepancies; however, as this adjustment constituted merely a technical process optimization and did not alter the rigid constraints on total export quotas, the market reaction was muted, and no price correction ensued. On March 31, the DRC’s mining regulatory body issued new rules requiring companies to utilize any unused export quotas from the fourth quarter of 2025 by April 30; any unused portions remaining after this deadline would be confiscated and transferred to the strategic reserve. Concurrently, the regulations clarified that export quotas for the first quarter of 2026 could be extended for shipment until June 30. While this measure aims to stabilize supply, it has not altered the prevailing pattern of tight supply in the short term.

From the perspective of short-term supply in March, domestic smelting enterprises saw a modest increase in capacity utilization, while arrivals of overseas cobalt raw materials also rose to some extent. With domestic smelters maintaining a normal production pace, spot supplies of cobalt salts and electrolytic cobalt were relatively ample; this—coupled with the gradual release of certain market inventories—temporarily alleviated the pressure of tight supply. However, the fundamental global landscape of a rigid tightening in cobalt supply remains unchanged: the arrival of cobalt intermediates at domestic ports has been delayed, and social inventories have plummeted to historic lows—sufficient to support consumption for only a few weeks—meaning the issue of raw material shortages for smelters has yet to be fundamentally resolved. Meanwhile, conflicts in the Middle East caused global container shipping rates to skyrocket by over 35% in March, significantly increasing the trading costs for cobalt raw materials and finished products, thereby further reinforcing the cost-side support for prices. The long-term strategic procurement agreement between GEM and Glencore continues to be implemented; under this agreement, Glencore is scheduled to supply GEM with 14,400 metal tonnes of crude cobalt hydroxide raw materials in 2026, a commitment that has, to a certain extent, stabilized the raw material supply for a number of domestic smelting enterprises.

Demand Side: Overall moderate growth, with short-term, temporary weakness

Demand for Power Batteries: As the primary pillar of cobalt demand (accounting for 43%), the global growth rate for new energy vehicles is projected to slow in 2026; concurrently, the market share of ternary batteries is expected to decline significantly. Consequently, the annual demand for cobalt in power batteries is forecast to reach 124,000 tons—a 24% increase compared to 2024. Furthermore, as of March, domestic new energy power battery manufacturers remained in an inventory-reduction phase. With the ramp-up of ternary battery production capacity proceeding at a sluggish pace, procurement demand for raw cobalt materials fell short of expectations; purchasing activities were largely limited to "on-demand" restocking, thereby failing to provide sufficient support for an upward trend in cobalt prices.

Consumer Electronics Demand: Accounting for 30% of total cobalt demand, this sector faces potential negative growth in 2026—dragged down by extended device replacement cycles and chip-related headwinds. However, driven by a wave of upgrades spurred by products such as AI smartphones, AI PCs, and foldable devices, annual cobalt demand within the consumer electronics sector is projected to reach 77,000 tons, representing a year-on-year increase of 10%. Nevertheless, demand in the consumer electronics market remained lackluster in March; downstream enterprises exhibited a strong inclination to hold back purchases while attempting to drive down prices, thereby further dampening overall demand for cobalt procurement.

Other Demand: Demand from both traditional and emerging sectors—such as energy storage, high-temperature alloys, and cemented carbides—accounts for 27% of the total. Cobalt demand in these areas is projected to reach 73,000 tons in 2026, representing an 11% year-on-year increase. Emerging market segments—such as humanoid robots and large-scale energy storage power stations—are gradually opening up avenues for long-term growth; however, this segment of demand did not see a concentrated surge in March, offering only limited support to short-term market performance.

Market Overview and Outlook

According to data analysts at SunSirs, the defining characteristic of the cobalt market in March 2026 was that "the underlying long-term bullish trend remained unchanged, while short-term structural divergences in supply and demand led to narrow-range price fluctuations." The absence of a significant price correction was primarily attributable to rigid constraints on the supply side and firm support from logistics costs; conversely, short-term volatility resulted from the combined influence of structural divergences in supply and demand, broader macroeconomic sentiment, and profit-taking activities.

Regarding the near-term market outlook, cobalt prices are highly likely to experience a narrow, volatile decline; however, a sustained unidirectional trend is unlikely to emerge. Future price movements will hinge primarily on three core variables: First, the actual efficiency of the export quota implementation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC)—specifically, the utilization of Q4 2025 quotas prior to the April 30 deadline. As the likelihood of concentrated shipments by enterprises increases, the cobalt market is expected to see a short-term easing of supply in April. Second, the pace of recovery in downstream demand, as well as the progress of inventory destocking among manufacturers of new energy batteries and consumer electronics. Third, geopolitical conflicts and fluctuations in logistics costs; should ongoing conflicts in the Middle East continue to drive up freight rates, this would further reinforce the cost-based support for prices. Given the anticipated concentration of shipments in the short term, limited recovery in demand, and the cost support bolstered by transportation factors, cobalt prices in April are highly likely to undergo a slight, volatile correction.

SunSirs has been continuously tracking price data for over 200 commodities for nearly 20 years, please contact support@sunsirs.com for subscription.