SunSirs: U.S. Cotton Planting Intentions Exceeded Expectations; ICE Cotton Futures Rose and Then Retreated

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) has released its Prospective Plantings Report for the 2026/27 crop year, with the data exceeding prior market expectations. The intended planted area for U.S. cotton in the new crop year is projected at 9.64 million acres, representing a year-over-year increase of 3.9%. Specifically, the intended planted area for Upland cotton is projected at 9.51 million acres—up 4.0% from the previous year—while the intended area for Pima cotton stands at 130,000 acres, a decrease of 8.1% year-over-year.

The 2026 U.S. cotton planted acreage intentions released by the USDA in this report were significantly higher than market expectations: the market consensus stood at 9.229 million acres, while the National Cotton Council's (NCC) January survey projected 9.00 million acres (a year-over-year decline of 3.2%), and the USDA's February Outlook Forum forecast 9.40 million acres (a year-over-year increase of 1.3%). The actual intended acreage announced in this report exceeded the market consensus by 411,000 acres and surpassed the NCC's earlier projection by 640,000 acres; consequently, the bearish impact of this data exceeded general market expectations.

Weighed down by a bearish report, ICE cotton futures ended a five-day winning streak, and prices subsequently tumbled from their recent highs. On the 31st, the ICE May cotton contract fell 0.19 cents to settle at 70.00 cents per pound. With an increase in U.S. cotton acreage, supplies for the upcoming season are projected to rise; market attention now turns to future cotton demand and evolving weather conditions.

According to the SunSirs Commodity Market Analysis System, as of April 1, the spot price for Grade 3128B lint cotton stood at 16,802 RMB/ton—a month-on-month increase of 0.97%, yet a decline of 0.27% compared to the previous day.

Currently, soil moisture levels and temperature conditions in both Northern and Southern Xinjiang are favorable, and the spring cotton sowing process is expected to proceed smoothly. China's cotton output for the 2026/27 season is projected to decline by 7% to 10% year-on-year, primarily due to a reduction in planted acreage in Xinjiang. The anticipated tight balance between domestic supply and demand is expected to provide medium-to-long-term support for cotton prices, partially offsetting the bearish impact of expanded cotton cultivation in the United States.

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