SunSirs: About One-Fifth of Global Liquid Ammonia Supply Disrupted, Prices Rise

According to Profercy, approximately one-fifth of the global supply of commercial liquid ammonia has been disrupted, with prices rising across all regions. Suppliers are urgently seeking alternative sources, and the impact continues to spread throughout international agricultural and industrial markets.

Profercy data shows that in 2025, an average of 315,000 metric tons of liquid ammonia per month was shipped from the Middle East via the Strait of Hormuz. Since the outbreak of conflict, key export hubs such as Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Iran have seen supplies virtually cut off due to damage to upstream production facilities and the inability of vessels to safely navigate critical shipping lanes; currently, only Oman continues to maintain exports.

With Middle Eastern supplies virtually “dried up,” buyers and traders have turned to Southeast and Northeast Asia, where supplies have been relatively abundant recently. Profercy data shows that China’s liquid ammonia exports surged significantly year-on-year from January to February, rising from nearly 75,000 metric tons in the same period of 2025 to approximately 125,000 metric tons. During the same period, Indonesia’s liquid ammonia shipments reached nearly 300,000 metric tons, a 10% increase year-on-year. Major producers and buyers in Indonesia and Malaysia have raised their spot price quotes for April to $550 per ton FOB, a 15% to 20% increase from previous transaction prices. This pricing implies that the next spot shipment to India will likely exceed $600 per ton CIF, particularly as the conflict in Iran has driven up global fuel and insurance costs, leading to across-the-board increases in shipping fees.

The supply situation in Western markets is significantly better than in Eastern markets. Woodside Energy’s newly constructed 1.1 million-ton-per-year liquid ammonia facility in Woodside, Texas, has shipped its first export batch of approximately 25,000 tons. Additionally, with the Gulf Coast Ammonia (GCA) plant in the same state set to resume production, the new capacity will effectively alleviate the supply pressure caused by market volatility in the East.

Currently, Turkish buyers are active in the spot market. Prior to the conflict, Turkey was a major purchaser of Iranian ammonia; however, several vessels previously engaged in such shipments have now been subject to U.S. sanctions. Nevertheless, Turkey continues to procure significant volumes of Russian ammonia from the Baltic region.

The deputy editor of Profercy’s liquid ammonia section anticipates that new liquid ammonia contracts for the international market covering April and May will be finalized by the end of this month. As long as the conflict in the Middle East persists, global liquid ammonia prices will continue to show regional divergence. However, the liquid ammonia market demonstrates strong resilience; during the early stages of the Ukraine crisis, the world lost approximately one-fifth of its commercial liquid ammonia supply overnight, and the industry has since accumulated experience in managing supply shocks.

As an integrated internet platform providing benchmark prices, on March 31, SunSirs' benchmark price for liquid ammonia stood at 2,586.67 RMB/ton, representing an increase of 19.38% compared to the beginning of the month (2,166.67 RMB/ton).

Application of SunSirs Benchmark Pricing：

Traders can price spot and contract transactions based on the pricing principle of agreed markup and pricing formula (Transaction price=SunSirs price + Markup).

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