SunSirs: Weighed Down by Demand, Dimethyl Carbonate Oscillated Lower from Elevated Levels

Price trend

During the latter half of March, dimethyl carbonate prices continued their upward surge before entering a phase of high-level volatility; however, they retreated rapidly toward the end of the month, as cost support and sluggish demand exerted opposing forces on the market.

March 16–23: Prices edged up gradually, maintaining a narrow range of consolidation as the market adopted a wait-and-see stance at elevated levels. On the 23rd, prices surged rapidly to a monthly peak of 4,866 RMB/ton—a 29.33% increase from the beginning of the month—driven by support from plant maintenance shutdowns and firm raw material prices, pushing manufacturers' resolve to uphold prices to its absolute zenith.

March 23–30: Prices entered a high-level consolidation range; downstream buyers exercised caution, and trading activity remained subdued. Toward the end of the month, a sharp plunge occurred, as the dampening effect of high prices on demand became acutely apparent.

According to the SunSirs Commodity Market Analysis System, as of March 30, the average domestic price for industrial-grade dimethyl carbonate stood at 4,633 RMB/ton—marking a cumulative decline of 2.47% over the past half-month, yet representing an increase of 23.56% compared to early March.

Market Drivers

Rising costs are the primary driving force

In March, the prices of the raw materials methanol and propylene oxide surged significantly in tandem. According to data from SunSirs, methanol prices rose by over 55% in March, while propylene oxide prices climbed by more than 58%; this rigid cost support served as a floor, driving prices to new highs. However, in late March, dimethyl carbonate (DMC) struggled to keep pace with these gains, instead maintaining a pattern of high-level volatility. This trend reflects that while manufacturers continued to hold firm on pricing in the face of cost pressures, downstream sectors demonstrated limited capacity to absorb these elevated price levels.

Divergence in Demand Restrains Upward Price Transmission

Downstream sectors—such as electrolytes and polycarbonate—are operating at low utilization rates; moreover, elevated prices are dampening purchasing enthusiasm. Consequently, enterprises have generally adopted a strategy of "procuring based on sales volume" and "following up with small-batch orders." With essential inventory replenishment largely complete, market trading activity remains consistently sluggish. As a result, the price appreciation of dimethyl carbonate has lagged significantly behind that of its raw materials, creating a market dynamic characterized by "strong cost-push pressures met with weak demand absorption."

Tighten the supply end first and then loosen it

During the earlier part of the period, multiple major domestic production facilities underwent continuous maintenance, resulting in tight market supply and a strong inclination among enterprises to hold up prices. However, toward the end of the month, some of the facilities under maintenance were scheduled to restart; this heightened market expectations of increased supply in the near future, thereby exerting downward pressure on price trends.

Market outlook

Supported by cost factors, the Dimethyl Carbonate (DMC) market continues to fluctuate at elevated levels; however, sluggish demand is constraining the upside potential for prices. In the short term, the market is expected to remain in a "high-level standoff" characterized by narrow price fluctuations. Market attention is primarily focused on two key factors: first, whether upstream methanol and propylene oxide prices undergo a correction—should raw material costs weaken, the downside potential for DMC would expand further; and second, the progress of restarts at facilities currently undergoing maintenance—if supply recovers rapidly, prices may continue their downward trajectory. Should downstream demand fail to show any significant improvement, the price center of gravity for DMC is likely to shift lower, indicating insufficient momentum for a short-term rebound.

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