SunSirs: Geopolitical Conflicts Drove Up Costs, and Silicomanganese Market Trended Up amid Volatility

Price trend

Last week, the silicomanganese market trended steadily with an upward bias. Market dynamics were primarily influenced by the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, while cost-side factors also demonstrated strength. Regarding manganese ore imports, United Manganese of Kalahari (UMK) released a new round of price quotes reaching as high as $6. Additionally, the price of chemical coke rose by 50 this week, providing strong support for alloy prices; consequently, factory quotes remained firm. According to data from SunSirs' commodity market analysis system, as of the end of last week, market quotes for silicomanganese (specifications: FeMn68Si18) in the Ningxia region ranged from approximately 6,100 to 6,200 RMB/ton. The market average price stood at 6,154.00 RMB/ton, representing a week-on-week increase of 2.94%.

Influencing Factors

Supply Side: Last week, production at factories in Inner Mongolia remained relatively stable. In Chayouqian Banner, a furnace was ignited today; however, it has not yet begun tapping iron. Several factories have indicated plans to cut production by 30% starting in April, though the actual extent of these reductions remains to be seen, pending observation of the manufacturers' concrete actions. In Ningxia, alloy plants are maintaining largely normal production levels for standard-grade silicon; regarding high-grade silicon, there is an expectation that an additional furnace will come online—though it has not yet begun yielding product—and current factory inventories remain on the high side. Reports suggest that factories in Ningxia and certain other regions have announced they will commence production cuts in April.

Southern Region: Following high-level hedging activities, a few individual plants in the South have recently announced plans to restart their furnaces. However, according to market surveys, production costs currently range between 6,200 and 6,300 RMB/ton. As the number of operating plants remains relatively low, alloy output is projected to see only a modest increase.

According to statistics, the operating rate of silicomanganese enterprises nationwide stood at 32.01% last week—a decrease of 4.08% compared to the week prior. The average daily output was 27,380 tons, down by 650 tons.

Based on incomplete statistics, as of March 27, the total inventory held by silicomanganese enterprises nationwide amounted to 372,800 tons, representing a month-on-month decrease of 12,000 tons. Regional breakdowns are as follows: Inner Mongolia held 61,300 tons (up 2,000 tons month-on-month); Ningxia held 293,000 tons (down 8,000 tons); Guangxi held 3,000 tons (up 500 tons); Guizhou held 2,000 tons (down 1,000 tons); the Shanxi, Gansu, and Shaanxi region held 4,500 tons (down 5,500 tons); and the Sichuan, Yunnan, and Chongqing region held 9,000 tons (unchanged).

Upstream Costs: Last week, the manganese ore market continued its volatile yet firm trend. Downstream, the performance of silicomanganese futures was lackluster, and sentiment within the spot market appeared somewhat divided. While some traders maintained high asking prices and showed little inclination to sell, others attempted tentative sales; this resulted in a somewhat disorderly market where transaction prices varied widely. Overall, the spot market last week remained within a high-level consolidation pattern. Manganese ore prices at Qinzhou Port trended upward amidst volatility, with actual transaction prices rising in tandem; however, factories in the southern region remained cautious regarding the resumption of production, leading to continued strategic maneuvering between buyers and sellers.

Data indicates that current manganese ore prices at Tianjin Port were quoted as follows: Australian lump at 48–50 RMB/MTU, semi-carbonate at 44.5–45 RMB/MTU, and Gabonese lump at 48.5–49 RMB/MTU. At Qinzhou Port, prices were quoted at 45–45.5 RMB/MTU for Australian lump, 39.5 RMB/MTU for semi-carbonate, and 44 RMB/MTU for Gabonese lump.

On the international market front, it is reported that CML (Consolidated Minerals) has released its manganese ore price offers to China for May 2026; Australian lump ore is quoted at $6 per dry metric ton unit, an increase of $0.4 per dry metric ton unit compared to the previous round of pricing.

Regarding demand: A major steel mill in Hebei has initiated a supplementary tender for silicomanganese alloys for March delivery, totaling 5,100 tons, with an inquiry price of 6,300 RMB/ton (compared to the January pricing of 5,920 RMB/ton). Meanwhile, a steel mill in East China has finalized its latest tender price for silicomanganese alloys at 6,470 RMB/ton (cash terms) for a volume of 500 tons. Additionally, it is reported that Maanshan Iron & Steel plans to tender for 1,000 tons of silicomanganese alloys, with the deadline for price submissions set for 13:00 on March 27.

A certain group has announced the pricing results for its silicomanganese tender. The pricing was as follows: Hubei — 6,480 RMB/ton (tender quantity: 2,600 tons); Jiangsu — 6,510 RMB/ton (tender quantity: 1,500 tons); Anhui — 6,510 RMB/ton (tender quantity: 1,000 tons); Heyuan, Guangdong — 6,610 RMB/ton (tender quantity: 1,500 tons); and Yunfu, Guangdong — 6,530 RMB/ton (tender quantity: 3,200 tons). All prices were on a cash basis, tax-inclusive, and delivered-to-factory.

According to relevant statistical data, the average daily crude steel output of key steel enterprises stood at 2.027 million tons in mid-March 2026—an increase of 0.8% compared to the previous ten-day period, but a decrease of 6.5% year-on-year.

Market Outlook

Overall, expectations regarding the supply side of silicomanganese have strengthened, while demand is gradually increasing; furthermore, the cost side remains robust and shows no signs of weakening. Influenced by geopolitical conflicts—which have driven up shipping and energy costs—expectations for further upward pressure on future costs have intensified. SunSirs forecasts that the silicomanganese market will likely continue to trade at elevated levels in the short term, and does not rule out the possibility of continued volatile upward movement.

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