SunSirs: Glyphosate Prices Continue to Surge, Reaching CNY27,500 per Ton
March 19 2026 14:17:08
The executive order on the Defense Production Act signed by President Trump this week continues to drive the phosphate chemical market, and the upward trend in the glyphosate technical grade market shows no signs of slowing down, with prices continuing to surge.
Data shows that as of March 15, 2026, the glyphosate technical grade market continued to rise, with manufacturers adopting a cautious approach to shipments. The 95% purity grade was quoted at 27,000 yuan per ton, while the 97% purity grade was quoted at RMB27,500 per ton.
This price level not only consolidates the recent upward trend but also highlights the strong momentum driving the market. The market’s focus now lies on how long this current rally will last amid the interplay of policy, supply, and demand factors, and where the price ceiling ultimately lies.
In the view of industry insiders, the current price surge in the glyphosate market is not driven by a single event, but rather the result of a convergence of four key turning points: supply, demand, costs, and policy. A fundamentals-driven price increase cycle has clearly emerged. The U.S. executive order designating glyphosate as a strategic material has sparked expectations of supply chain restructuring in global markets, driving sustained demand for precautionary procurement. Meanwhile, regions such as South America and Southeast Asia are in the peak season for pesticide use, with strong export orders; domestic downstream players are actively stockpiling, and domestic formulation manufacturers are highly motivated to replenish inventories. With strong restocking demand and a firm willingness among enterprises to maintain prices, the supply-demand fundamentals provide robust support. In the short term (January–March), prices are expected to remain at high levels of RMB27,000–29,000 per ton, with the potential to continue rising and break through the RMB28,000 per ton mark.
From a medium-term perspective (March–December), price trends will face a rebalancing of supply and demand. As the peak application season in South America ends, demand may decline from peak-season levels, while the gradual release of new industry capacity will also alleviate supply tightness. However, it should also be noted that continuously tightening environmental policies and high raw material costs (supported by high prices of upstream raw materials such as yellow phosphorus and glycine) provide strong support for the price floor. Coupled with increasing industry concentration, companies’ bargaining power has significantly strengthened. It is expected that prices will fluctuate within the range of RMB25,000–28,000 per ton in the medium term, exhibiting characteristics of “resistance above and support below.”
Industry insiders reveal that, from a longer-term perspective, the pricing logic for glyphosate has undergone a profound shift. On one hand, the continuous expansion of genetically modified crop acreage and the accelerated replacement of highly toxic pesticides provide long-term support for demand; on the other hand, the strategic resource status attributed to glyphosate has systematically raised its value benchmark. Although emerging production capacity in countries such as Indonesia may reshape the global supply landscape, the impact of geopolitical factors on supply chain security has become a pricing factor that cannot be ignored.
In summary, glyphosate’s current market trend still has upward momentum in the short term, faces seasonal adjustment pressure in the medium term, and is entering a new phase of strategic resource pricing in the long term. Over the next 1–3 months, glyphosate prices are expected to fluctuate within the range of RMB27,000–29,000 per ton. Barring any major negative developments, prices are unlikely to experience a significant correction. Downstream enterprises are advised to build inventory moderately in line with their production schedules, avoid chasing prices at high levels, and closely monitor overseas policy developments and progress on new production capacity.
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