SunSirs: With Costs Plummeting, Aniline Prices Fell Back from High Levels

Price trend

According to SunSirs' Commodity Market Analysis System, aniline prices fluctuated downward last week. On March 9, the market price for aniline stood at 11,462 RMB/ton, compared to 10,262 RMB/ton on March 6—marking a decline of 10.17% over the period, yet representing a year-on-year increase of 17.12%.

Market analysis

Throughout the week, the situation in the Middle East remained volatile; after briefly breaching the $100 mark, crude oil prices underwent a rapid correction, leading to a sharp decline in the price of the raw material, benzene. Driven by these cost-side pressures, aniline prices were subsequently lowered. As of March 13, aniline prices, however, remained at elevated levels; consequently, downstream buyers were entering the market strictly on an "as-needed" basis, resulting in a cooling of purchasing activity and a prevailing wait-and-see sentiment.

Cost side: Mid-week, signs emerged of an easing in geopolitical tensions. Coupled with news that the G7 was holding an emergency meeting to discuss a coordinated release of strategic oil reserves, market sentiment cooled rapidly. On March 10, international crude oil prices underwent a sharp correction; consequently, cost-side support weakened, leading to a pullback in benzene prices. Prices experienced wide fluctuations, prompting downstream sectors to adopt a passive, wait-and-see stance, while overall demand remained lackluster.

Market outlook

As of March 13, the macroeconomic outlook remained uncertain; consequently, the price of the raw material—benzene—was fluctuating in tandem with crude oil prices. Aniline prices are expected to remain at elevated levels in the near term; market participants should closely monitor future trends in raw material costs as well as changes in market supply and demand.

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