SunSirs: Supported by Multiple Positive Factors, the 1,3-Butadiene Market Was on the Rise

Price trend

According to data from SunSirs' commodity market analysis system, from March 2nd to March 9th, 2026, the domestic 1,3-butadiene market price surged from 10,093.33 RMB/ton to 14,540 RMB/ton, a weekly increase of 44.06%, setting a new record for recent price increases. This period saw a strong price surge in the domestic 1,3-butadiene market, driven by a confluence of positive factors including soaring crude oil prices, a tightening supply situation, and strong demand.

Cost Side:

The core driver of the domestic 1,3-butadiene market's price increase this cycle came from strong cost support. International crude oil prices surged due to geopolitical tensions, directly pushing up 1,3-butadiene production costs. According to SunSirs' commodity market analysis system, this round of oil price surges began around March 1st with the US and Israel's attacks on Iran. Iran subsequently retaliated by preventing oil tankers from passing through the Strait of Hormuz, directly triggering panic in the global crude oil market. As a core channel for approximately 20% of global seaborne crude oil trade, the disruption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz directly led to a sharp tightening of global crude oil supply expectations. Coupled with the escalating military conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran, market panic further intensified, driving international oil prices to a historic surge. As of March 6th, NYMEX crude oil futures led the surge, with the actively traded April crude oil contract closing up $9.89, a 12.21% increase, settling at $90.90 per barrel. This cycle saw a cumulative increase of $23.88, a staggering 35.63%, marking the largest weekly gain since 1983. Meanwhile, Brent crude oil futures for May delivery rose $7.28, or 8.52%, to settle at $92.69 a barrel, marking the sixth consecutive trading day of gains. The cumulative increase for the period reached 27.2%, with both major crude oil futures contracts breaking through the $90 mark. On March 9, both contracts even briefly surpassed the $110 per barrel mark, reflecting unprecedented bullish sentiment in the market.

On the supply side:

This period saw a tight supply of 1,3-butadiene in China, with the operational status of major domestic producers further exacerbating the supply shortage. In terms of plant operations, several major companies, including Nanjing Chengzhi, Sirbon, and Yanshan Petrochemical, maintained shutdowns during this period. Although some plants at Sinochem Quanzhou Petrochemical and Hainan Refining & Chemical gradually restarted, overall capacity release was limited and failed to effectively alleviate the market supply gap. Meanwhile, some domestic producers anticipated reducing their operating rates, and coupled with the rapid rise in 1,3-butadiene prices this period, traders were reluctant to sell, resulting in a significant shortage of low-priced goods. Furthermore, the Asian 1,3-butadiene market strengthened simultaneously this period, with China CFR quoted at $1,415-1,423/ton, an increase of $40/ton from the previous period. The improved export market also indirectly reduced domestic supply, further supporting the upward trend in domestic 1,3-butadiene prices.

Dongming Petrochemical's 50,000-ton/year 1,3-butadiene unit was operating normally, with 224 tons sold externally at the base price of 15,000 RMB/ton.

Yantai Wanhua's 200,000-ton/year 1,3-butadiene unit was operating normally, with 84 tons sold externally at the base price of 13,500 RMB/ton, and a transaction price of 16,040 RMB/ton.

Satellite Chemical's 90,000-ton/year 1,3-butadiene unit was operating normally, with a cumulative increase of 3,000 RMB/ton, at 16,000 RMB/ton.

On the demand side: 

Domestic 1,3-butadiene demand remained strong during this period, with the downstream BR market providing robust support for 1,3-butadiene demand. Looking at the BR market, most BR plants maintained high operating rates this period. Although Yanshan Petrochemical's plant did not operate at full capacity and Zhenhua New Materials maintained reduced operating rates, overall capacity utilization remained high, ensuring stable 1,3-butadiene demand. Meanwhile, downstream tire companies resumed production smoothly after the holiday, with production gradually returning to normal levels. The capacity utilization rate of sample tire companies is expected to have some room for further slight improvement, indirectly driving up BR demand and consequently increasing 1,3-butadiene procurement demand.

Market outlook

Overall, the domestic 1,3-butadiene market saw a significant price increase this cycle, driven by three major factors: cost, supply, and demand. The strong market trend is expected to continue in the short term, but the long-term impact of multiple variables on the market needs to be monitored.

In the short term, geopolitical tensions remain high, and international crude oil prices are expected to fluctuate at high levels, providing continued cost support. On the supply side, some domestic 1,3-butadiene plants were still undergoing maintenance, and expectations of reduced operating rates persist, making it difficult to quickly alleviate the tight supply situation. On the demand side, BR plants continue to operate at high capacity, tire manufacturers' demand is gradually recovering, and 1,3-butadiene demand remains strong. Coupled with a bullish market sentiment, the domestic 1,3-butadiene market is expected to continue its rapid upward trend in the short term, with further room for price increases. Going forward, close attention should be paid to crude oil price trends, plant operating conditions, and changes in downstream demand.

SunSirs has been continuously tracking price data for over 200 commodities for nearly 20 years, please contact support@sunsirs.com for subscription.