SunSirs: The Xylene Market Declined in February due to Both Cost and Supply-Demand Factors

Price trend

According to data from SunSirs' commodity market analysis system, the domestic xylene market in February 2026 exhibited a fluctuating downward trend, with prices initially rising and then falling. Throughout the month, the price center gradually shifted downwards, and the industry as a whole was in a weak position characterized by ample supply and demand and insufficient cost support. From February 1st to 28th, the domestic xylene market price decreased from 5,740 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month to 5,670 RMB/ton at the end of the month, a cumulative decrease of 1.22% during the period.

Market analysis

In February, the domestic xylene market exhibited a phased upward trend with fluctuations. At the beginning of the month, driven by the stabilization and recovery of the crude oil market and the slightly stronger PX futures, market sentiment was positive. Refineries in Shandong's core production area saw smooth shipments, and the East and South China markets followed suit, with major refineries steadily raising their prices and the market negotiation atmosphere active. Although PX futures experienced a short-term correction in the middle of the month, triggering a slight wait-and-see attitude in the market and causing some price fluctuations, the support from crude oil costs remained, and refineries showed a strong willingness to maintain prices, preventing a significant price decline. Towards the end of the month, with the recovery in the refining and chemical industry and the rise in international market prices, the domestic market trading atmosphere heated up again, with manufacturers continuing to raise prices, and market prices in various regions rising in tandem, pushing prices to a new high for the month. Downstream oil blending and chemical industries showed improved purchasing sentiment compared to the previous month. Although still mainly purchasing on an as-needed basis, their restocking enthusiasm increased, and this phased stockpiling provided actual support for the market price increase.

Cost Side:

The international crude oil market in February generally exhibited a trend of volatile rebound followed by a decline. Throughout the month, it was influenced by a complex interplay of factors including geopolitical tensions, market sentiment, and supply and demand expectations. This provided initial support for the cost of xylene, which gradually weakened. According to market data, the price of WTI crude oil futures fluctuated significantly in February. At the beginning of the month, prices rose rapidly due to escalating geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, reaching a closing price of $63.90 per barrel on February 3. Subsequently, as the conflict did not escalate further and market risk aversion cooled, prices fell, closing at $62.91 per barrel on February 12. In the middle and latter part of the month, prices fluctuated again, generally remaining within the $62-67 per barrel range. The closing price rebounded to $67.29 per barrel on February 27, resulting in a "rise first, then stabilize, and finally consolidate" pattern for the entire month. From the perspective of influencing factors, geopolitical tensions were the core driver of crude oil price fluctuations this month. Escalating conflicts at the beginning of the month pushed up risk premiums, driving oil prices higher. However, as the situation stabilized in the latter half of the month, the premiums gradually diminished. Meanwhile, the anticipated increase in OPEC+ production and seasonally weak global crude oil demand further constrained the upside potential of oil prices. This resulted in crude oil's cost support for downstream chemical products such as toluene showing a trend of initial strength followed by weakness, indirectly affecting toluene market price trends. As of the 27th, the settlement price of the April contract for US WTI crude oil futures was $67.02 per barrel. The settlement price of the May contract for Brent crude oil futures was $72.87 per barrel.

Supply Side:

Domestic xylene supply shifted from tight to loose this month, with market pressure gradually increasing, resulting in an overall ample supply situation. From a plant operation perspective, domestic refineries operated stably overall, with pre-holiday inventory reduction and post-holiday resumption of operations proceeding in an orderly manner, leading to a continuous increase in supply. Regarding inventory, as supply increased, domestic xylene regional inventories gradually rebounded from their low levels at the beginning of the month, with a slight accumulation at East China ports. Market supply was ample, and suppliers' willingness to maintain prices continued to weaken. Some refineries, in order to accelerate sales, moderately lowered their quotations, further exacerbating downward pressure on market prices.

A summary of Sinopec's xylene prices: As of February 28, the company was operating normally, with stable production and sales. Prices remained unchanged from the previous day. As of February 28th, the price quoted by the East China branch was 5,700 RMB/ton, the North China branch was 5,400-5,500 RMB/ton, the South China branch was 5,850 RMB/ton, and the Central China branch was 5,350-5,550 RMB/ton.

Demand Side:

According to the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, from February 1st to 28th, the domestic PX market price fluctuated. Sinopec Sales Company made slight adjustments to the price of paraxylene (PX) midway. As of February 28th, the price in the four major regions of East China, North China, Central China, and South China was uniformly set at 7,650 RMB/ton, an increase compared to the price on February 1st. Major plants such as Yangzi Petrochemical and Zhenhai Petrochemical operated stably, and product sales were normal, with stable production and sales throughout the month.

In the international market: From February 1st to 28th, the price of paraxylene (PX) in Asia fluctuated downwards. The closing price range for the whole month was $871-900/ton FOB Korea and $896-925/ton CFR China. As of February 28th, the closing price of PX in the Asian market was $871-873/ton FOB Korea and $896-898/ton CFR China, which was lower than the price on February 1st, and the overall fluctuation range was moderate.

Overall demand for xylene was weak this month, offering limited support for prices. The core characteristics were "pre-holiday stockpiling depletion and slow post-holiday recovery." Downstream industries operated at low capacity due to the Spring Festival holiday, leading to pre-holiday stockpiling that depleted post-holiday demand. Post-Lantern Festival resumption of work was slow, with the core downstream PX industry's operating rate recovering less than expected. Coupled with a global PTA surplus, procurement was insufficient. In the blending sector, demand was weak due to slowing gasoline consumption growth, with procurement growth of less than 1% year-on-year. Demand structure was mixed in solvents and other sectors, with only a slight increase in demand for high-purity products, resulting in limited overall price support. Furthermore, cautious market sentiment and on-demand purchasing further constrained demand release, leading to sluggish market trading and weak price support.

Market outlook

On the cost side, tensions in the Strait of Hormuz have increased geopolitical premiums for crude oil, providing strong cost support for xylene. On the supply side, refineries are maintaining high operating rates, and imports are expected to surge in March, resulting in a generally ample supply that will partially offset the positive cost factors. On the demand side, with downstream industries fully resuming production, the PX industry's operating rate is gradually recovering, increasing procurement demand and indirectly boosting demand for xylene. Overall, the market in March will likely exhibit a supply-demand dynamic, with a moderate upward trend supported by costs. Close attention should be paid to crude oil price fluctuations, the recovery of PX industry operations, and changes in import volumes.

SunSirs has been continuously tracking price data for over 200 commodities for nearly 20 years, please contact support@sunsirs.com for subscription.