SunSirs: China PE Prices Surged, Led by High Pressure

From March 2nd to 5th, 2026, the domestic PE market, driven by the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, the sharp rise in crude oil prices, equipment maintenance, and downstream resumption of work, emerged from a trend of significant price increases across the board and led by high pressure.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, the average price of LLDPE (7042) was 6,816 RMB/ton on March 2 and 7,566 RMB/ton on March 6, an increase of 11%. LDPE (2426H) had an average price of 8,916 RMB/ton on March 2nd and 10,366 RMB/ton on March 6th, an increase of 16.26%. The average price of HDPE (5000S) on March 2nd was 7,370 RMB/ton, and on March 6th it was 8,295 RMB/ton, an increase of 12.55%.

Cost side: Geopolitical conflicts ignite crude oil

Shipping in the Strait of Hormuz is becoming stricter, and crude oil prices are skyrocketing. Strong support from the cost side, PE is passively rising across the board.

Supply side: Import supply interruption+device maintenance

China's PE imports are highly dependent on the Middle East: Middle Eastern sources account for nearly 50% of China's total PE imports, with Iran being the largest source of LDPE imports, accounting for about 14%. The overall dependence on LDPE imports is nearly 50%, and the impact is most obvious. Shipping disruptions have led to tight supply, limited sales, and the largest increase. During the period from February 27th to March 5th, there were new maintenance projects in Qilu and Dushanzi in China, resulting in a loss of approximately 61,500 tons of PE equipment maintenance, an increase of 3,500 tons compared to the previous period, and a contraction in supply.

Demand side: Post holiday resumption of work+peak season expectations

The downstream gradually resumed work after the eighth day of the first lunar month, and the production of packaging film, injection molding, and wire drawing rebounded. March is the traditional peak season for agricultural film, and the demand for stocking has been released in advance, leading to an increase in inquiries and restocking.

Funds and Emotions: Futures Leading the Rise, Spot Following the Rise

The continuous limit up of futures has led to an increase in spot prices, causing traders to be reluctant to sell and downstream panic buying. The market has shifted from being dominated by fundamentals to being driven by geography and emotions, with increased volatility.

Short term outlook: Pros: high crude oil prices, tight LDPE imports, equipment maintenance, downstream resumption of work, and peak season expectations. Negative: High domestic inventory, downstream profit pressure, and easing risks of geopolitical conflicts. Prediction: Short term high volatility and intensified volatility; If the geopolitical situation eases, prices may rise and fall back, returning to the fundamentals of supply and demand.

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