SunSirs: Geopolitical Conflicts Led to a Surge in N-Butanol Prices, with a Three-Day Increase Exceeding 7%

Price trend

According to data from SunSirs' commodity market analysis system, as of March 4, 2026, the reference price of n-butanol in Shandong, China, was 6,480 RMB/ton, an increase of 447 RMB/ton or 7.40% compared to March 1 (when the reference price was 6,033 RMB/ton).

In early March, n-butanol prices saw a strong upward trend

According to the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, the Shandong n-butanol market continued to rise in the first week of March. From March 1st to 4th, major Shandong n-butanol producers successively raised their prices, with the largest single-day increase reaching 500 RMB/ton, and market negotiations focused on upward price movements. On March 4th, the Shandong n-butanol price was referenced at around 6,400-6,550 RMB/ton.

Analysis of core influencing factors.

Macroeconomic Outlook: In late February 2026, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East decreased, shipping efficiency in the Strait of Hormuz declined, and the logistics costs and supply expectations of global crude oil and basic chemicals was repriced. Market risk aversion to "supply disruptions" pushed up raw material costs.

Implicit cost transmission: In the crude oil-propylene-n-butanol chain, the geopolitical premium of international crude oil prices was transmitted to the production cost of n-butanol through the naphtha-propylene path. Under the dual pressure of rising costs and low inventory, enterprises choose to raise prices to maintain profit margins.

Downstream demand recovery: Domestic downstream industries such as coatings and plasticizers, producing n-butanol, had gradually resumed operations after the holiday, leading to a gradual release of restocking demand. This boosted market sentiment, increased trading activity, and improved demand transmission, supporting the price increase of n-butanol in Shandong province.

Market Outlook

In the short term, the price of n-butanol in Shandong is expected to continue its upward trend. Close attention should be paid to changes in the operating rates and inventory levels of major plants, the pace of demand recovery in downstream industries, and the impact of raw material cost fluctuations on the market.

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