SunSirs: Geopolitical Events "Ignited" the Energy and Chemical Sector, and Maleic Anhydride Surged

Price trend

According to data from SunSirs' commodity analysis system, the domestic maleic anhydride market has recently seen a significant increase. As of March 4, the average market price of maleic anhydride produced by the n-butane oxidation method remained at 5,962.50 RMB/ton, an increase of 12.50% compared to 5,300 RMB/ton on March 1.

Fundamental analysis:

On the supply side: Maleic anhydride prices have recently continued to rise sharply. In recent auctions held by Wanhua Chemical in East China, transaction prices have continued to rise to 6,120-6,130 RMB/ton, an increase of 1,140-1,150 RMB/ton in three days. Trading activity was good, supporting the maleic anhydride market. Major maleic anhydride manufacturers continued to raise prices significantly. As of March 4th, the ex-factory price of solid maleic anhydride in Shandong was around 6,200 RMB/ton, and the ex-factory price of liquid maleic anhydride was around 6,000 RMB/ton.

Upstream: Saudi CP prices remained stable at $540/ton in March, but the expected closure of the Strait of Hormuz will affect subsequent mixed butane transportation, and the supply of imported liquefied petroleum gas may tighten. Considering the soaring freight and insurance costs, the actual landed cost of Saudi CP is deviating from the paper calculation, and the long-term expectation is still rising. Domestic n-butane prices have risen to 5,350 RMB/ton.

Downstream: The recent rise in unsaturated resin prices was mainly due to the sharp increase in raw material prices such as styrene and maleic anhydride, which supported the cost of unsaturated resins. In addition, end users were gradually resuming work and replenishing their stocks, which supported the price of unsaturated resins. However, some downstream companies had stocked up before the holiday and their purchases were mainly based on just-in-time demand.

Market outlook

According to analysts at SunSirs, the maleic anhydride market is likely to continue to rise in the short term due to the recent continued impact of geopolitical risk premiums, which have driven up the cost of n-butane. In addition, the main downstream unsaturated resin industry is gradually resuming operations.

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