SunSirs: Under the Combined Effect of Four Factors, Sulfur Prices Surged Across the Board

Price trend

Sulfur prices surged recently (February 27 - March 3, 2026). On March 3, the benchmark price of sulfur on SunSirs was 4,050.00 RMB/ton, an increase of 3.58% compared to the beginning of the month (3,910.00 RMB/ton). The port/ex-factory price rose by as much as 230 RMB/ton in a single day. The core reason for this surge was the combined effect of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, the urgent needs of spring planting, low inventory levels, and demand from new energy sources.

I. Core Issues: Middle East Conflict + Shipping Disruptions (Most Critical)

Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted the transport of approximately 44% of global sulfur trade and 56% of China's imported sulfur (from Iran, Oman, Saudi Arabia, etc.). Ship owners have suspended operations, insurance premiums have skyrocketed, and freight rates have soared. In March, about 50% of Iranian sulfur orders could not be delivered, and shipments decreased by 45% year-on-year. Market panic buying and hoarding by holders have directly driven up import costs and spot prices..

II. Demand Side:

In early March, the operating rate of phosphate fertilizer (monoammonium phosphate/diammonium phosphate) plants exceeded 80%, leading to a concentrated release of pent-up demand for sulfuric acid production. The commissioning of lithium iron phosphate and Indonesian MHP production capacity added millions of tons of new sulfur demand. Downstream and port inventories were at historically low levels after the Spring Festival, exacerbating the supply-demand mismatch.

III. Supply Side:

China's sulfur import dependence is approximately 47%, with insufficient new capacity. Sinopec, PetroChina, and Rongsheng Petrochemical together account for 70% of the capacity, resulting in concentrated supply. The declining operating rate of Shandong's local refineries further reduced domestic supply.

Market Outlook:

In conclusion, the sulfur market is expected to remain strong at high levels in the short term. The key to price trends will depend on the recovery of shipping in the Middle East and the arrival situation at ports. If the tight supply continues, prices are more likely to rise than fall. After the recovery, prices may fluctuate at high levels.

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