SunSirs: Analysis of the Coexistence of Positive and Negative Factors in China Soybean Meal Market

National Grain and Material Reserve Data Center News: Positive factors: intensified international geopolitical conflicts, fluctuations in global commodity markets, high crude oil prices, support for CBOT soybean futures prices and domestic and international oil prices, favorable for soybean meal prices. Negative factors: Firstly, oil factories are expected to resume operations this week, with soybean crushing capacity expected to rebound and soybean meal production increasing; Secondly, the expected high yield of Brazilian soybeans limits the room for international soybean price increases.

Positive factors: The intensification of international geopolitical conflicts and high crude oil prices support CBOT soybean futures and oil prices, indirectly benefiting soybean meal spot prices. As soybean meal and soybean oil are linked products, the demand side is boosted. Negative factors: This week, oil plants resumed operation comprehensively, and the increase in soybean crushing volume led to an increase in soybean meal output. Coupled with the expected high yield of Brazilian soybeans, which suppressed the upward space of international soybean prices, the supply side pressure significantly increased. The futures market has shown a bearish trend, with the main soybean meal 2605 contract closing at 2,829 RMB/ton, down 8 points from the previous day. The position has decreased by 68,455 lots to 1,875,372 lots, with high trading volume, indicating that the market is dominated by bearish sentiment. It is expected that the short-term soybean meal futures price will be under pressure and decline.

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