SunSirs: Steel: China Continues to Target Overseas Export Markets

Global steel exports rose 5% in 2025 compared to 2024, with China's exports surging 19% to lead this growth trend.

In stark contrast, exports from the rest of the world declined 2% year-on-year.

Looking ahead to 2026, weakening global demand and rising trade barriers may pose significant challenges.

In 2025, global steel exports climbed to 234 million tons, a 5% increase over 2024. This growth was entirely attributable to China, whose exports surged by 19% to reach 92 million tons. Conversely, exports from the rest of the world declined by 2%, with Japan—the second-largest exporter—seeing a 1.8% drop.

According to TSOP data, China's share of global seaborne steel exports approached 40% in 2025, up from 35% in 2024. This share increase corresponds to an additional export volume of nearly 15 million tons. Crucially, the proportion of steel exports relative to China's total crude steel output has significantly increased. TSOP data shows this ratio remained between 6% and 8% from 2022 to 2024. However, in 2025, driven by both a decline in production and stronger exports, this ratio has risen to 10%.

China's steel production capacity stands at approximately 1 billion tons, far exceeding that of second-ranked India (currently around 200 million tons, with plans to increase to 300 million tons by 2030). However, persistent weakness in China's domestic real estate sector has severely curbed steel demand, pressuring prices downward and forcing mills to cut production. The latest production data shows China's steel output declined by 4% year-on-year.

Early in 2026, steel output will experience a seasonal decline due to the Spring Festival holiday, and export operations will also suffer, with first-quarter export data typically showing weakness. The market expects China's steel industry growth to slow further in 2026, weakening the outlook for domestic production and sales.

This trend will compel a shift toward export markets. China's steel exports will boost demand for ultra-large ore carriers, as its steel exports account for over 57% of China's total Handymax fleet capacity.

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