SunSirs: China PET Bottle Flakes Fell and Rebounded in February, and Weakened Again at the End of the Month

As of February 28th, according to the price data from SunSirs, the mainstream average spot price of PET bottle chips in East China is 6,322 RMB/ton.

price trend

Overall: First fell, then rebounded, and weakened again at the end of the month; The monthly average price is 6,230 RMB/ton, with a month on month increase of 1.27%.

At the beginning of the month (2.1-2.5): Rapid downward trend. After the holiday, raw materials rebounded, cost support weakened, and futures fluctuated downward; Spot price increased from 6,324 to 6,068 RMB/ton (2.2 RMB/day, down 256 RMB).

Mid month (2.6-2.23): Shockingly rebounded, raw material PTA/MEG strengthened, and costs rose; Futures rebounded and spot prices gradually recovered to the range of 6,100-6,270 RMB/ton.

At the end of the month (2.24-2.27), the futures rose 136 RMB to 6,266 RMB/ton due to the expansion of rising, falling, and weakening; Subsequently, crude oil weakened and downstream resumption of work fell short of expectations, causing spot prices to fall from 6,330-6,450 RMB/ton.

Core market analysis

1. Cost side (dominant factor)

Crude oil under pressure: OPEC's expected increase in production and falling oil prices directly suppress PTA/MEG.

Weakening of raw materials: PTA/MEG prices have declined, bottle chip cost support has weakened, and factory profits have shrunk.

Transmission path: crude oil → PX → PTA/MEG → bottle flakes, with significant downward transmission of short-term costs.

2. Supply side

Operating rate: Approximately 66% per month, with some equipment undergoing maintenance (such as CR Jiangyin and Sanfangxiang), resulting in tight supply.

Inventory: Low factory inventory provides limited support for prices.

New production capacity: The growth rate will slow down in 2026 (about 6.25%), and the supply and demand will tighten in the medium term.

3. Demand side (maximum drag)

Slow resumption of work: The resumption rate of downstream industries such as soft drinks and edible oils is only 50% -60%, lower than the same period in previous years.

Prudent procurement: Downstream focus on digesting pre holiday inventory, with few new orders and only replenishing inventory for essential small orders.

Low production and sales: The production and sales of 2.27 bottle tablets are only 30% (far below the 70% profit and loss line), and the factory is under great pressure to ship.

Peak season expectation: Traditional peak season in mid to late March, but there is no clear order signal in the short term.

4. Futures and market sentiment

Futures led the decline in spot prices, with a weaker basis and a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market.

The price difference of the quotation has widened (50-100 RMB/ton), and the transactions are mostly low-priced goods.

Market forecast (early March)

Trend judgment: Weakly oscillating consolidation, difficult to have a significant rebound.

Core Focus:

Crude oil and PTA/MEG price trends

Downstream resumption progress (after RMBxiao (Filled round balls made of glutinous rice-flour for Lantern Festival) or at the inflection point)

Production and sales of bottle slices and inventory turnover speed

Risk points: Continuous decline in crude oil, lower than expected resumption of downstream work, further weakening of futures.

SunSirs has been continuously tracking price data for over 200 commodities for nearly 20 years, please contact support@sunsirs.com for subscription.