SunSirs: The Domestic Calcium Carbide Market Declined After the Spring Festival

Price trend

Following the 2026 Spring Festival, the domestic calcium carbide market experienced an overall downturn, with prices gradually declining from pre-holiday highs. Supply-demand imbalances, logistical disruptions, and weakened cost support led to a continuation of the downward trend on February 27th, with short-term focus on destocking and weak fluctuations.

In major producing areas, the mainstream ex-factory price in Wuhai and Ningxia was 2,300-2,350 RMB/ton, and the self-pickup price of 290L/KG in Shanxi was 2,300 RMB/ton, a decrease of 150-250 RMB/ton (a drop of 6-10%) compared to before the holiday. Consumption areas such as North China, Central China, and East China also declined, with the receiving price in Hebei, Henan, and Shandong at 2,730-2,910 RMB/ton, a decrease of 100-250 RMB/ton compared to before the holiday. The weakness continued in late February, with a strong bearish sentiment in the market.

Ample supply coupled with weak demand, and high inventory levels

On the supply side, production started at a high level before the holiday and remained stable during the Spring Festival. However, restrictions on the transportation of hazardous chemicals led to a backlog of goods, resulting in high inventory levels and significant pressure to ship in major producing areas.

On the demand side, downstream companies had sufficient inventory before the holiday, but their willingness to purchase was weak after the holiday. The slow resumption of work in core industries also dragged down the demand for calcium carbide.

There was a temporary imbalance between supply and demand. On the supply side, production was stable but logistics were restricted and inventory was piling up; on the demand side (PVC accounts for 75% of demand), there was sufficient stockpiling before the holiday but slow resumption of work after the holiday, and low acceptance of high-priced calcium carbide. The supply and demand shifted from a tight balance to an imbalance, pushing prices down.

Logistics disruptions. During the Spring Festival, many areas imposed traffic restrictions on highways carrying hazardous chemicals (some for up to 9 days), which lengthened transportation cycles and exacerbated the contradiction of "stockpiling in production areas and sufficient supply in sales areas." Even after the logistics recovery after the holiday, it will still be difficult to digest the inventory in the short term.

Weakening cost support: The downward adjustment of raw material semi-coke prices had reduced its supporting effect; calcium carbide companies' profits had shrunk, and some companies were still forced to lower prices to sell at a loss.

Market outlook

In March, the domestic calcium carbide market remained in a state of "de-stocking and weak demand." Downward pressure eased, but the rebound was weak. On the supply side, production remained stable, but high inventory levels needed to be digested. Inner Mongolia's orderly electricity policy may have a temporary impact on supply. On the demand side, downstream industries gradually resumed work, but were hampered by the maintenance wave in March, resulting in a slow recovery in calcium carbide procurement. Prices are expected to fluctuate between 2,300 and 2,700 RMB/ton, with some regions potentially experiencing further declines. A short-term rebound is unlikely. Going forward, it is necessary to focus on four key indicators to judge the market's future trend: inventory and shipment pace in the main producing areas of Northwest China, downstream PVC and BDO production and maintenance plans, raw material price trends such as semi-coke, and the recovery of hazardous chemical logistics.

SunSirs has been continuously tracking price data for over 200 commodities for nearly 20 years, please contact support@sunsirs.com for subscription.