SunSirs: Manganese Ore Prices Were Being Held Firm, and Silicomanganese Prices Rebounded Slightly

Price trend

Manganese ore futures prices rebounded strongly due to tariffs on South African manganese ore and increased electricity prices. Manganese ore prices were held firm, and the Two Sessions (National People's Congress and Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference) provided some short-term support. However, high silicomanganese inventories and slow recovery in steel mill demand may limit further price increases. According to data from the SunSirs' commodity market analysis system, the market price of silicomanganese (FeMN68Si18 specification) in Ningxia was around 5,550-5,650 RMB/ton at the end of this week, with an average market price of 5,610.00 RMB/ton, a 1.04% increase compared to last week.

Influencing factors

On the supply side: This week, some alloy plants in Inner Mongolia that had started production earlier increased their iron output during the holiday, leading to an upward trend in alloy production. These plants were primarily focused on fulfilling previous orders, but due to logistical delays during the Spring Festival, a small amount of inventory accumulated. Factories reported relatively low overall shipping pressure. In Ningxia, silicomanganese production remained stable, with some large plants returning to normal operating rates and a few smaller plants reducing their rates. Overall production was not significantly different from before the holiday. Regarding inventory, in Ningxia, due to the lack of market activity during the Spring Festival, both silicon and manganese spot inventories accumulated, while raw material manganese ore inventories decreased compared to before the holiday.

In the southern region, the price of silicomanganese has not fluctuated much. Due to the cancellation of the peak-shaving-valley electricity pricing policy by the Southern Power Grid in 2026, factory costs have increased. Coupled with high electricity prices, most factories have suspended production for maintenance. There has been no fluctuation in the resumption of production during the holiday. The enthusiasm of factories for production remained low, spot resources were relatively tight, and people are waiting to see what the policy situation will be after the holiday.

According to statistics, the operating rate of silicomanganese enterprises nationwide this week was 35.62%, a decrease of 0.22% compared to last week; the average daily output was 28,205 tons, an increase of 510 tons.

According to incomplete statistics, as of February 27, the national inventory of silicomanganese enterprises was 398,300 tons, an increase of 3,500 tons compared to the previous period. Among them, Inner Mongolia had 67,300 tons, an increase of 2,000 tons; Ningxia had 314,500 tons, an increase of 3,500 tons; Guangxi had 3,000 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons; Guizhou had 1,500 tons, a decrease of 500 tons; Shanxi, Gansu, and Shaanxi had 10,000 tons, unchanged; and Sichuan, Yunnan, and Chongqing had 2,000 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons.

Upstream costs: The manganese ore market remained firm, with rising overseas costs coupled with anticipated post-holiday restocking demand from factories, leading to a strong overall bullish sentiment among traders. South African manganese ore saw a particularly significant price increase due to news of reduced and delayed overseas shipments in February and March. This week, semi-carbonated manganese ore prices rose by approximately 1 RMB/MTU, with transaction prices following suit by about 0.5 RMB/MTU. South African high-speed rail ore prices and transactions both increased by about 0.5 RMB/MTU, and overseas prices continued their upward trend.

Data shows that as of February 27, manganese ore lumps from Australia were quoted at 42-43.5 RMB/MTU, semi-carbonated manganese ore at 37-38 RMB/MTU, and Gabonese ore at 42.5-43 RMB/MTU; manganese ore lumps from Australia were quoted at 42 RMB/MTU, semi-carbonated manganese ore at 34.5-35.5 RMB/MTU, and Gabonese ore at 42 RMB/MTU.

On the demand side: A steel mill in East China finalized its new round of silicomanganese bidding price at 5,800 RMB/ton (acceptance), which was not much different from the price level offered in steel bidding before the holiday. However, many steel mills did not launch a new round of silicomanganese bidding before the holiday, and the wait-and-see attitude in steel bidding after the holiday was strong. It is reported that Wuhan Iron and Steel was bidding for 1,000 tons of silicomanganese, and the deadline for bidding was 15:00 on February 26; Rizhao Steel plans to bid for 3,000 tons of silicomanganese, and the bidding results were yet to be announced.

Major steel procurement agencies are not expected to make purchases in February, with a new round of procurement not expected until early March, and prices are temporarily supported.

Market Outlook

In summary, the manganese ore market saw strong price support before the holiday, but weak demand prevented a corresponding price increase. After the holiday, increased downstream operations and anticipated restocking kept the price support in place, although miners raised their offers due to factors such as South African manganese ore costs and export taxes. Meanwhile, the silicomanganese market was temporarily under increasing pressure. Post-holiday inventory pressure at some plants needed to be digested, and some steel tenders were offering slightly lower prices (in the past two days, some steel tenders in East China had seen new rounds of silicomanganese procurement prices around 5,800 RMB/ton for acceptance). Furthermore, a large steel mill in northern China was not planning to tender in February due to maintenance. Overall, the silicomanganese market was characterized by a wait-and-see attitude, and SunSirs predicts that the silicomanganese market will remain volatile in the short term

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