SunSirs: Global Lithium, Cobalt, and Nickel Face Successive Export Bans—Mineral Competition Escalates

The global race for critical minerals is accelerating, redefining the strategic value of minor metal assets.

On February 25, the Zimbabwean government abruptly announced a complete suspension of lithium concentrate and ore exports effective immediately, halting even shipments already in transit. As the world's fourth-largest lithium producer with reserves of 126 million tons, Zimbabwe's core demand behind this ban is that companies establish local processing plants to convert raw ore into higher-value lithium sulfate before exporting. According to public data, Zimbabwe accounts for 15% of China's imported lithium concentrate, impacting monthly production by approximately 14,000 metric tons of lithium carbonate equivalent.

This is not an isolated incident. Previously, the Democratic Republic of the Congo implemented export quotas for cobalt, while Indonesia drastically reduced nickel ore production quotas by 70%. Resource-rich nations are attempting to retain supply chain profits domestically by controlling upstream supply.

Meanwhile, the United States is accelerating its strategic positioning in critical minerals. Public information indicates the Trump administration plans to utilize Pentagon-developed AI projects to establish reference prices for key minerals, initially covering germanium, gallium, antimony, and tungsten, with gradual expansion. Additionally, the U.S. established a $12 billion Strategic Mineral Reserve Fund in early February and convened 54 nations to discuss establishing a mineral security framework.

Rigid constraints on the supply side, coupled with structural growth on the demand side, are reshaping the pricing logic for minor metals. As major powers vie for control over critical minerals to secure their own resource supply and increase reserves, the global supply gap for these minerals is widening, driving prices upward. Global critical mineral resources will see upward pressure due to a “security premium.”

The nonferrous metals industry is undergoing profound transformation—no longer merely a passive follower of economic cycles, but a core enabler of energy transition, digital infrastructure, and national security strategies. Driven by structural forces like the AI revolution, grid upgrades, and rising renewable energy penetration, resource scarcity is being repriced, and supply-demand mismatches will persistently intensify.

China's tungsten market faces multiple supply disruptions, including reduced exploitable reserves, declining mine shipments, and unstable imports. “The global tungsten market grapples with acute supply-demand imbalances that will prove difficult to resolve in the short term.”

On the demand side, the scaled deployment of AI hardware is driving consumption of upstream functional materials. Galaxy Securities research highlighted that during the Spring Festival, domestic sales of AI glasses surged by 70% to 80%, while AI toy transactions skyrocketed 500-fold year-on-year. This boom in consumer electronics relies heavily on the precision power output and responsiveness provided by high-performance neodymium-iron-boron permanent magnets.

Driven by structural demand from AI computing infrastructure, power grid upgrades, and accelerated solid-state battery industrialization, rare metals like copper, aluminum, lithium, cobalt, and rare earths are evolving from cyclical commodities into strategic assets. Their price benchmarks are expected to rise systematically.

As an integrated internet platform providing benchmark prices, on February 27, the SunSirs nickel benchmark price was 143,833.33 RMB/ton, a decrease of 1.5% compared with the beginning of the month (146,016.67 RMB /ton).

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