SunSirs: Supply Reduced, and Cobalt Prices Fluctuated and Rose After the Holiday

Cobalt prices fluctuated and rose after the holiday

According to SunSirs' cobalt market analysis system: On February 26th, the cobalt price was 440,100 RMB/ton, a 3.48% increase compared to the February 14th price of 425,300 RMB/ton; and a 1.06% decrease compared to the February 1st price of 444,800 RMB/ton, after an initial drop followed by a rise. Following the Spring Festival, sales of new energy vehicles recovered, increasing demand in the cobalt market. Coupled with reduced cobalt supply, the post-holiday cobalt price fluctuated upwards.

Cobalt Market Supply Situation

Sumitomo Corporation of Japan announced on February 18 that its Ambatovi nickel-cobalt project in Madagascar was shut down due to damage to facilities caused by Tropical Cyclone Gaizani last week. Ambatovi, owned by Sumitomo, was operated by the state-owned South Korean mining company KOMIR, which produced approximately 28,000 metric tons of nickel and 2,500 metric tons of cobalt in 2024. The shutdown of the Madagascar cobalt mine is expected to reduce cobalt supply in the market.

Cobalt market demand trends

Data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) shows that in January 2026, China's production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 1.041 million and 945,000 units respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 2.5% and 0.1%. New energy vehicle sales accounted for 40.3% of total new vehicle sales. Data released by the China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance shows that in terms of installed capacity, in January, domestic power battery installed capacity was 42.0 GWh, a decrease of 57.2% month-on-month but an increase of 8.4% year-on-year. Among them, ternary lithium batteries accounted for 9.4 GWh, representing 22.3% of the total installed capacity, a decrease of 48.6% month-on-month but an increase of 9.6% year-on-year. Although new energy vehicle production and sales saw a slight increase in January, the decline in the proportion of ternary lithium battery installed capacity, coupled with the promotion of low-cobalt batteries, led to a decrease in expected growth in cobalt market demand.

Market Overview and Outlook

According to analysts at SunSirs, slow growth in new energy vehicle production and sales has led to a decline in cobalt demand. The shutdown of cobalt mines in Madagascar has reduced cobalt supply. Additionally, domestic downstream customers replenishing their inventories after the Spring Festival has resulted in a temporary increase in cobalt demand. Overall, supported by demand and reduced supply, cobalt prices are expected to fluctuate upwards in the near future.

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