SunSirs: China Domestic Natural Rubber Spot Market Is Fluctuating and Rising

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the domestic natural rubber spot market has fluctuated and risen recently (1.1-1.27). As of January 27th, the spot rubber market in China's natural rubber market was around 15,941 RMB/ton, an increase of 6.75% from 14,933 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month. As of January 27th, the mainstream price for 24 years of Guangken, Baodao, and Haibao latex in Qingdao is 15,900-16,050 RMB/ton.

Recently (1.1-1.27), the continuous increase in Tianjiao inventory has had a bearish impact on the Tianjiao market. However, the supply of natural rubber raw materials is tight and prices are rising. In addition, downstream restocking is gradually taking place before the Spring Festival, causing the natural rubber market to fluctuate and rise.

Recently (1.1-1.27), the prices of natural rubber raw materials have been consolidating at a high level. As of January 27th, the price of Thai glue was 57.90 baht/kg, unchanged from 54.70 baht/kg at the beginning of the month. At present, Yunnan and Hainan production areas in China have completely stopped cutting, and the scope of cutting in northern Thailand has expanded. The supply of natural rubber raw materials is tight and prices are rising, which supports the natural rubber market.

Recently (1.1-1.27), natural rubber inventory has continued to grow, with a relatively negative impact on natural rubber. As of January 25, 2026, the total inventory of Tianjiao bonded and general trade in Qingdao area was 584,500 tons, an increase of 11.38% from 524,800 tons at the end of December 2025.

Supply and demand side: Since early January (1.1-1.26), downstream tire production has slightly increased, providing essential support for the natural rubber market. As of January 26th, the construction of semi steel tires by domestic tire companies has increased from 67% at the beginning of the month to around 75%; The construction of all steel tires by tire enterprises in Shandong region has increased from 58% at the beginning of the month to about 63%.

Market forecast: The price of natural rubber raw materials will continue to rise at a high level in the short term, supported by the urgent demand for downstream tires. The inventory of Tianjiao Port will increase, but downstream replenishment will gradually end near the Spring Festival. Overall, it is expected that the natural rubber market will mainly fluctuate and consolidate in a narrow range before the holiday.

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