SunSirs: China Corrugated Paper Narrowly Decline, Short-term Low Consolidation

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the price of corrugated paper still showed a fluctuating downward trend last week, but the decline gradually narrowed. On January 23, 2026, the average ex factory price of 140g corrugated paper was 2,690 RMB/ton, a decrease of 0.74% compared to the average price on January 18.

In terms of upstream raw materials: Last week, the price of waste paper in Zhejiang region stopped falling and rebounded, while the price of waste paper in domestic paper mills fluctuated. On January 23, 2026, the average purchase price of A-grade waste yellow board paper in Zhejiang region was 1,602 RMB/ton, an increase of 1.01% compared to the average price on January 18. Due to the strong seasonal characteristics of the waste paper market, paper mills will increase their own waste paper reserve inventory before the Spring Festival to cope with the suspension of waste paper trading during and after the Spring Festival holiday. Recently, as the Spring Festival holiday approaches, some paper mills have started implementing their Spring Festival stocking plans, and their purchasing intentions have shown a slight rebound.

On the supply side: Due to inventory pressure, some regions have arranged for equipment shutdown and maintenance, resulting in reduced supply and rising raw material costs. The bearish sentiment in the market has weakened in the later stage. In addition, the plan for shutdown and maintenance during the Spring Festival holiday has been released one after another, which will lead to a significant decrease in production in January and February compared to the previous month, easing the supply pressure in the market. During the week, many large-scale paper enterprises continued to implement the price protection policy in multiple bases, with some varieties experiencing price reductions, and many small and medium-sized paper mills adjusting accordingly.

On the demand side: With the gradual approach of the Spring Festival holiday, terminal orders have improved, and coupled with downstream cardboard factories digesting their raw paper inventory to a medium low level, the enthusiasm for purchasing raw paper from downstream cardboard factories has also increased. Although the trading atmosphere in the market has improved, downstream packaging companies have implemented a strategy of using and purchasing as needed before the holiday, and the shipping speed of paper companies has not significantly accelerated.

The paper analyst of SunSirs believes that the recent rebound in raw material waste paper prices has supported the price of corrugated paper on the cost side. In addition, downstream paper packaging companies are gradually entering a pre holiday replenishment state, and the market is mainly observing for the time being. It is expected that the price of corrugated paper will remain low in the short term.

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