SunSirs: In 2025, the Domestic Hydrofluoric Acid Market Experienced Upward Price Fluctuations, and This Upward Trend May Continue in 2026

I. The domestic anhydrous hydrogen fluoride market maintained a generally volatile upward trend in 2025

According to data monitored by SunSirs, the domestic anhydrous hydrogen fluoride market maintained an overall upward trend with fluctuations in 2025. The average market price at the beginning of the year was 11,583.33 RMB/ton, rising to 13,033.33 RMB/ton by the end of the year, representing a cumulative increase of 12.52%. The price trend chart shows that the highest point of the year occurred at the end of December, with a price of 13,033.33 RMB/ton; the lowest point occurred in August, with a price of 10,650 RMB/ton, resulting in a maximum price fluctuation of approximately 22.38% throughout the year.

As can be seen from the trend chart, the hydrofluoric acid market experienced a fluctuating process of "stability-rise-correction" in the first half of the year, while the main trend in the second half was a "rebound after hitting bottom."

First half of the year (January-March): The hydrofluoric acid market price showed a "stable first, then rising" trend. In January, due to the depletion of old quotas in the refrigerant industry and weak end-user demand, factories were not very active in production, and the industry's operating rate generally remained at a low level, around 60%, resulting in a stable market supply. Downstream refrigerant manufacturers' demand for hydrofluoric acid was at its lowest point of the year, mainly focusing on purchasing for immediate needs. The hydrofluoric acid market operated smoothly.

Entering March, the domestic hydrofluoric acid market experienced a "cost-driven" price increase. The price of raw material sulfuric acid surged, and fluorite prices remained high, severely squeezing factory profits and even leading to significant losses. This resulted in low production willingness, with some factories even halting production. The market showed a strong desire for price increases, and coupled with the downstream refrigerant industry gradually entering its traditional peak production season, industry capacity utilization recovered to 70-80%, providing strong support for the hydrofluoric acid market.

(April-June): In early April, due to falling raw material prices, companies saw improved profits and increased production activity, resulting in ample inventory. The market operating rate reached 59.2%, a 4.1% increase compared to March, with production reaching 175,600 tons, a 7.0% increase month-on-month. By the end of April, the problem of overcapacity became more pronounced, forcing companies to reduce prices due to inventory and financial pressures, further exacerbating the price decline. After May, the downstream market entered a low season for purchasing, coupled with accumulating inventory and easing raw material costs, leading to a continued price decline. By the end of June, prices had fallen by over 10% from their mid-year peak.

Second half of the year (July-December): As the most crucial raw material, the price of fluorite, after experiencing continuous declines in the first half of the year, entered a clear upward trend starting in late August. Sulfuric acid, another major raw material, also experienced a strong price increase in the second half of the year. The rising cost of raw materials forced hydrofluoric acid prices to follow suit. As of December 30th, the price of hydrofluoric acid rose to its annual high of 13,033.33 RMB/ton, essentially recovering the losses from the first half of the year.

II. 2026 Hydrofluoric Acid Supply Forecast: Hydrofluoric acid production capacity will continue to grow, and output will increase steadily

In recent years, emerging industries such as lithium batteries, new energy vehicles, photovoltaics, and semiconductors have developed rapidly, leading to a surge in demand for fluorochemical products and driving rapid expansion of the fluorochemical industry. Anhydrous hydrogen fluoride (AHF), as a raw material for the production of downstream fluorochemical products, is the most important intermediate in the fluorochemical industry. Its production capacity continues to grow, and its output shows a trend of increasing year by year.

Statistics on hydrofluoric acid production capacity and output in China in recent years:

According to data from SunSirs, China's hydrofluoric acid production capacity reached 3.843 million tons in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 11.9%. By 2025, the hydrofluoric acid production capacity is expected to reach 3.988 million tons per year, with an output of 2.75 million tons per year, representing an increase of approximately 18% compared to the 2.329 million tons produced in 2024.  The Chinese hydrofluoric acid industry possesses strong production and market supply capabilities, and its production capacity is expected to continue growing in 2026.

Domestic hydrofluoric acid production capacity distribution in 2025:

China's hydrofluoric acid production capacity is mainly distributed in Fujian, Inner Mongolia, Jiangxi, Shandong, and Zhejiang provinces, with Fujian and Inner Mongolia each having an annual production capacity exceeding 600,000 tons. According to statistics, there are approximately 77 hydrofluoric acid manufacturers in China, with East China accounting for as much as 54% of the production capacity, while Central China and Northwest China each account for about 9%. Due to the low concentration and fragmented nature of China's anhydrous hydrogen fluoride industry, most production enterprises are relatively small in scale, leading to fierce competition.

Projected production capacity distribution of major domestic companies in 2025:

The main domestic producers of anhydrous hydrogen fluoride include Inner Mongolia Jin'ebao Fluorochemical Co., Ltd., Wengfu Group, Zhejiang Juhua, and Yonghe Co., Ltd., with an estimated total production capacity of approximately 3.988 million tons per year, accounting for about 87% of the global total capacity.

Operating rates and inventory: High operating rates and low inventory levels support prices.

With the advancement of science and technology and the development of emerging fields such as new energy, new materials, and semiconductors, the application areas of hydrofluoric acid in China have become increasingly broad. Its applications have expanded from traditional areas such as refrigerants and fluoride salts to emerging fields such as photovoltaics, lithium hexafluorophosphate, fluoropolymers, and integrated circuits. Refrigerants remain one of the main downstream application areas for hydrofluoric acid, accounting for approximately 51% of the market. Lithium hexafluorophosphate accounts for approximately 9%, fluoropolymers for about 9.5%, fluorine-containing fine chemicals for about 4%, and exports for about 2.5%. In addition to these main application areas, hydrofluoric acid is also used in several other fields, accounting for a combined 1.5%. This indicates that hydrofluoric acid has a very wide range of applications and diverse market demands.

Downstream refrigerant quota situation in 2026: The quota for third-generation refrigerants in 2026 will show limited change compared to 2025.

According to the plan released by the Ministry of Ecology and Environment in December, the total production quota for third-generation HFCs is 798,000 tons (an increase of 5,963 tons compared to 2025), with 394,000 tons for domestic use and 404,000 tons for export. The phase-out of second-generation HCFCs continues, with the R22 production quota at 146,100 tons (a decrease of 3,000 tons compared to 2025), and R141b being completely phased out. Mainstream varieties are undergoing structural adjustments, with quotas for R32, R134a, and R245fa increasing, while those for R143a and R227ea are decreasing. The quota adjustment limit has been relaxed to 30%, and the supply side CR6 is approximately 90%, indicating high concentration. Overall, the increase in R32/R134a/R245fa quotas is driving demand for anhydrous hydrofluoric acid (AHF).

Data indicates an increased demand for hydrofluoric acid in the refrigerant industry, which may lead to a shortage of domestic HFCs refrigerants and further drive up market prices.

In terms of emerging application areas

1. New Energy Sector: The largest source of growth, with a growth rate exceeding 20%. Lithium hexafluorophosphate and PVDF are the core drivers. Global new energy vehicle sales are expected to reach 13.3 million units, driving hydrofluoric acid consumption to over 400,000 tons, and achieving G4/G5 grade purity for new lithium salts. Photovoltaics: Global installed capacity exceeds 500 GW, with N-type battery penetration exceeding 60%, resulting in a demand for 150,000 tons of electronic-grade hydrofluoric acid. Hydrogen fuel cells: Demand is 8,000-12,000 tons, with high growth expected in the next 3-5 years.

2. Semiconductors and Advanced Packaging: High-purity materials demand is booming, with a growth rate of 10%-15%. Silicon-based semiconductors: Domestic demand for G4+ grade materials is 80,000-100,000 tons; third-generation semiconductors (SiC/GaN) are driving demand growth of 18%-22%; the advanced packaging market exceeds US$40 billion, with an average annual demand increase of over 10%.

3. High-end Fluorine-containing Materials and Fine Chemicals: High-value-added growth in fluorine-containing pharmaceuticals/pesticides: corresponding to a consumption of 60,000-70,000 tons of hydrofluoric acid, with a growth rate of 10%-12%; the market size of special fluorine-containing polymers is US$4.5 billion, driving a demand growth rate of 8%-10%.

4. Displays and Emerging Electronics: Steady growth in new display technologies is driving demand for electronic-grade hydrofluoric acid by 30,000-40,000 tons, with a growth rate of 7%-9%; demand for electronic chemicals continues to see incremental increases.

In summary, the demand for hydrofluoric acid in emerging fields is showing a significant upward trend. Fluorine-containing fine chemicals and polymers, new energy, and semiconductors are becoming important drivers of the growth in demand for hydrofluoric acid. In the future, with technological advancements and industrial upgrading, the application of hydrofluoric acid in emerging fields will become even more widespread, and its demand will continue to grow.

Regarding the import and export of hydrofluoric acid

China's hydrofluoric acid industry is primarily export-oriented, making it the world's largest exporter of hydrofluoric acid, with export volumes far exceeding import volumes. However, export volumes have shown a declining trend in recent years. According to data from the General Administration of Customs of China, in 2024, China exported 227,600 tons of hydrofluoric acid, a year-on-year decrease of approximately 2.69%. From January to November 2025, China exported 219,300 tons of hydrofluoric acid, a year-on-year increase of approximately 6.15%.

Compared to export volumes, China's imports of hydrofluoric acid are very small. According to data from the General Administration of Customs of China, from January to November 2025, China imported a total of 143.926 tons of hydrofluoric acid, a year-on-year decrease of approximately 24.92%.

The above data indicates that domestic supply is sufficient, and production capacity and technology can fully meet domestic demand, leading to a contraction in demand for high-end imports.  Meanwhile, international demand is recovering, with exports becoming a crucial support. The industry is driven by exports, and the overall market trend is stabilizing and improving, with structural upgrades underway.

Hydrofluoric Acid Market Outlook for 2026:

In 2026, the hydrofluoric acid market will continue to exhibit the core trends of "stabilizing cost base, optimizing supply structure, and upgrading demand structure," resulting in a generally resilient market.

On the cost side, fluorite, a core raw material and a non-renewable strategic mineral, is subject to tighter mining quotas, making a significant price decline unlikely. Prices are expected to maintain an upward trend or fluctuate within a certain range.

On the supply side, in 2026, the domestic anhydrous hydrofluoric acid market will be characterized by "moderate overall capacity expansion, accelerated release of high-end capacity, co-existence of raw material constraints and policy controls, and maintenance of medium-to-high operating rates."  Overall supply will increase, but the structure will be significantly differentiated, with supply of high-value-added products such as electronic-grade hydrofluoric acid remaining tight. It is projected that the total domestic anhydrous hydrofluoric acid production capacity in 2026 will reach 4.1-4.2 million tons/year, representing a year-on-year increase of 3%-5%.

The demand side exhibits significant structural differentiation. In traditional sectors, refrigerants, as the largest downstream application of hydrofluoric acid, are experiencing marginal demand improvement but limited growth potential due to the limited increase in quotas for third-generation HFCs and the accelerated phase-out of second-generation HCFCs. Emerging sectors have become the core growth engine, with the new energy industry driving strong demand for lithium hexafluorophosphate and PVDF. Demand for high-end hydrofluoric acid is also surging in areas such as semiconductor etching and photovoltaic backsheets. Coupled with the start of the overseas air conditioning replacement cycle and China's continued competitive advantage in hydrofluoric acid exports, export demand is steadily increasing, further supporting overall market demand.

Overall Outlook: In 2026, the domestic anhydrous hydrofluoric acid market is expected to exhibit a trend of "higher price center, significant product differentiation, and tight supply-demand balance." Prices have already started to rise at the beginning of the year, with mainstream prices in markets such as Taicang reaching 12,000 RMB/ton. Throughout the year, strong cost support will be provided by high fluorite raw material prices and constraints from environmental protection and energy consumption policies. On the supply side, new capacity will be released moderately, but outdated capacity will be phased out at an accelerated pace; on the demand side, the semiconductor and new energy sectors will drive a surge in demand for electronic-grade products, while demand for traditional refrigerants will remain stable. Due to technological barriers, the supply of electronic-grade products will be tight, leading to significant price increases; the supply and demand of industrial-grade products will tend to be balanced, with prices fluctuating with costs. Industry concentration will increase, with leading companies dominating the high-end market. The overall market will be stable with an upward trend, and structural opportunities will become prominent. It is expected that the average price of the domestic anhydrous hydrofluoric acid market in 2026 may be slightly higher than the 2025 level, showing a volatile but generally upward trend throughout the year. Market turning points will highly depend on changes in fluorite costs and the pace of demand release from downstream emerging sectors.

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