SunSirs: The Trend of China Corrugated Paper Rebounded in 2025, and the Supply and Demand will Continue to Improve in 2026

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the corrugated paper market in 2025 will be affected by multiple factors such as supply and demand, macro environment, and cost, and the price will show a three-stage trend of "first suppression, then rise, and then fall". On December 31, 2025, the average ex factory price of 140g corrugated paper was 2,950 RMB/ton, with an annual average price increase of 1.1%.

Review of Market Trends in 2025

At the beginning of the year, the newly added production capacity in the corrugated paper market continued to be released, and the spot supply was relatively loose. After the Spring Festival, domestic paper mills resumed normal operations one after another, and industry supply remained at a high level. In addition, the negative impact of US tariff policies on domestic manufacturing exports gradually highlighted supply pressure. The downstream packaging paper market has entered a seasonal off-season, with insufficient terminal order quantities, resulting in continuous accumulation of spot inventory and intensifying market supply and demand contradictions, directly driving down the price of corrugated paper rapidly until early July, when the price fell to the lowest level of the same period in history.

After entering the third quarter, the supply of raw materials and waste paper became tight and prices continued to rise. Coupled with the introduction of the domestic "anti involution" policy, leading enterprises raised prices one after another, driving small and medium-sized enterprises in the industry to follow suit. The demand side is making efforts during the peak season, with e-commerce activities and express logistics starting ahead of schedule. The packaging demand in industries such as food and beverage, and home appliances is recovering, and downstream purchasing willingness is increasing. The price of corrugated paper is opening up a fast upward channel, forming a core upward cycle for the whole year. But towards the end of the year, the corrugated paper market experienced a sudden change, with prices rapidly declining after briefly maintaining high levels. The core contradiction once again shifted towards supply-demand imbalance, and the supporting role of the cost side was significantly weakened, resulting in a significant price correction under the dual pressure.

Cost side waste paper and corrugated paper will fluctuate at the same frequency in 2026

Waste paper is the core raw material for corrugated paper production, accounting for 60% -70% of the total cost of corrugated paper. Its price and supply directly determine the cost and capacity release of corrugated paper, and the market conditions of the two are highly interconnected and mutually influential, with two-way transmission. On December 31, 2025, the average purchase price of A-grade waste yellow cardboard in Zhejiang Province was 1,720 RMB/ton, an increase of 2.02% in the annual average price. It is expected that in the first quarter of 2026, due to the late Spring Festival holiday, the trend of waste paper may first suppress and then rise, and the price of corrugated paper will be adjusted accordingly.

Mild release of supply side pressure in 2026

1. The speed of capacity addition has slowed down

In 2025, the total production capacity of corrugated paper in China will be about 38.19 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 10.3%, and the newly added corrugated paper production capacity in China will be about 2.75 million tons. The concentration of top enterprises has increased, with production capacity in East and South China accounting for over 75%, and the utilization rate of leading production capacity maintaining over 90%.

Looking ahead to 2026, the pace of new production capacity for corrugated paper in China is slowing down, with a total of approximately 1.57 million tons of corrugated paper projects with strong production certainty. The production speed is expected to decline to some extent. Considering that some small and medium-sized production capacity is still being cleared, the overcapacity pattern in the industry may continue in 2026, but the negative impact of new production is relatively limited.

2. There is still a slight increase in production

The total annual production of corrugated paper in China from January to December 2025 is about 28.2 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.21%. The capacity utilization rate reaches 70% -80%. In 2026, the domestic corrugated paper production will continue its steady growth trend, but the growth rate will significantly slow down compared to 2025. The annual output is expected to reach 29.2-3 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.5% -6.0%, and the capacity utilization rate will reach 72% -75%.

3. The impact of import volume is slowing down

According to data from the General Administration of Customs, the cumulative import quantity of corrugated paper from January to November 2025 was 2.0204 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 17.87%, and the import volume continued the downward trend of 2024. From the perspective of overseas markets, firstly, the production capacity investment in Southeast Asia has come to an end, with no new production capacity landing in 2024-2025, and the export supply capacity to the Chinese market is stabilizing; Secondly, the price of US waste is gradually coming out of the trough, and the cost advantage of Southeast Asian enterprises relying on US waste production is weakened, resulting in a decrease in the competitiveness of imported paper prices. In addition, domestic paper prices are in a historically low range, and the profit margin of imported paper is limited, resulting in insufficient willingness of enterprises to import. It is expected that the import volume of corrugated paper will continue to shrink in 2026, further weakening the impact on the domestic market.

Overall stable and moderate recovery of demand side in 2026

1. Continuous growth in consumption

Based on historical data, the consumption of corrugated paper has continued to experience relatively strong growth in the past few years. Between 2019 and 2024, the annual consumption of corrugated paper increased from 23.74 million tons to 34.07 million tons. From January to October 2025, the consumption of corrugated paper continued to be strong, with a total of about 21.84 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5%.

The core growth drivers of corrugated paper consumption come from the following three major areas

One is the e-commerce logistics industry: It is expected that the volume of China's express delivery business will exceed 150 billion pieces by 2026, with over 90% of the packaging using corrugated cardboard boxes, driving demand for corrugated paper to exceed 9 million tons, a year-on-year increase of about 12%, becoming the main engine of demand growth.

The second is the food and beverage industry: the outbreak of emerging formats such as fresh e-commerce and pre packaged meals has driven the demand for corrugated paper in cold chain logistics to grow by 12.5%, effectively offsetting the slowdown in demand for traditional food packaging.

The third is the replacement of green packaging: the upgraded version of the "plastic ban" continues to be promoted, and the demand for plastic packaging replacement in industries such as food and beverage, medicine, etc. is released, driving the increase in the consumption of corrugated paper.

It should be noted that the demand for packaging related to real estate will remain weak, and the growth rate of corrugated paper demand in industries such as home appliances and furniture will remain low, becoming the main factor restricting overall demand growth. In addition, the trend of packaging reduction will result in an average annual decrease of 2% in the amount of paper used per unit product, which will exert a certain pressure on the growth of consumption.

2. There is an expected increase in export volume

In recent years, the export volume of corrugated paper in China has maintained a steady growth trend, becoming an important supplement to digesting domestic production capacity. From January to November 2025, the cumulative export volume of corrugated paper will be 100400 tons, mainly to Southeast Asia and countries along the "the Belt and Road". In 2026, with the recovery of the global manufacturing industry, packaging demand in Southeast Asia, the Middle East and other regions will continue to increase. Coupled with the gradual improvement of overseas layout of domestic leading enterprises, the export volume of corrugated paper is expected to rise, and the expansion of export markets will further balance the domestic supply and demand pattern. ‌

In summary, the domestic corrugated paper market is expected to experience a substantial improvement in supply and demand patterns by 2026. The slowdown in production growth, weakened import impact, and moderate demand recovery will collectively drive prices from low volatility to rational recovery.

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