SunSirs: With Increased Supply, the Average Price of Seamless Tubes Is Expected to Decrease in 2026

Price trend:

According to data from SunSirs, seamless steel tube prices fluctuated downwards in 2025. By the end of the year, the price of 20# seamless steel tube was 4,112 RMB/ton, a decrease of 2.27% compared to 4,207.5 RMB/ton at the beginning of the year. The highest price was 4,212.5 RMB/ton on February 20th, and the lowest point was 4,042.5 RMB/ton on July 2nd, with a full-year fluctuation range of 4.21%. The average price of seamless steel tube in 2025 was 4,115 RMB/ton, a decrease of 9.04% compared to the average price of 4,487.32 RMB/ton in 2024. As of the end of 2025, the price level of seamless steel tube was at a slightly below-average historical level.

Market Analysis

Looking at the seamless tube market in 2025, domestic seamless tube prices fluctuated and weakened, and the expected traditional peak season failed to materialize. The recovery of market demand was far weaker than anticipated. Dominated by weak demand, prices failed to find effective support and entered a prolonged downward trend starting in the second quarter.

Regarding upstream tube billets, the national tube billet market continued its downward trend in 2025, with price fluctuations narrowing to a low range. Total tube billet production increased in 2025.

Supply Side

Domestic seamless tube production

From 2013 to 2016, China's seamless steel tube production capacity entered a plateau phase. During this period, demand growth slowed significantly, and production capacity reached a temporary peak, resulting in an oversupply in the industry. In 2025, the newly added domestic seamless tube production capacity was around 1.97 million tons, with approximately 10 new production lines, most of which had already commenced operation. Taking into account the retired capacity, the domestic seamless steel tube production capacity in 2025 was 42.91 million tons, an increase of 990,000 tons year-on-year.

Downstream demand

In terms of exports: Seamless tube exports were increasing year by year, reaching 5.7211 million tons in 2024, a significant increase of 68.76% compared to 2021. In 2025, seamless tube exports  remained stable at the previous high level, projected to reach 5.8-6 million tons. Exports remained at a high level, and the performance of seamless tube exports continued to be strong. From January to November 2025, the average import price of seamless tubes reached 54,920.25 RMB/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 22.78%.

Demand side: Market performance in the first half of 2025 was relatively good, but since August, transactions have shown a gradual decline. The average daily transaction volume in December 2025 was 12,947 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.08%. Transaction performance in 2025 showed a pattern of higher volumes in the first and second halves of the year, but the rate of decline accelerated significantly in the fourth quarter.

Factors influencing 2026

From the supply side, it is estimated that seamless tube production capacity will continue to increase by 2.05 million tons in 2026, and by another 1.5 million tons in 2027, indicating significant competitive pressure in the future.

From the demand side, there will still be considerable demand growth in steel structures and infrastructure sectors, including tubeline renovation, guardrails, water conservancy, power, oil and gas tubelines, and heating systems; overall, demand is expected to remain resilient in 2025.

Market Outlook:

According to analysts at SunSirs specializing in seamless tubes, the fundamental market conditions in 2026 will be characterized by increased supply, stable demand, and intense competition. The price trend for seamless tubes in 2026 is expected to be lower in the first half of the year and higher in the second half, with the overall average price declining.

If you have any inquiries or purchasing needs, please feel free to contact SunSirs with support@sunsirs.com.