SunSirs: Polyacrylamide Market Summary for 2025 and Forecast for 2026

According to SunSirs' commodity market analysis system: In 2025, the average market price of polyacrylamide (CPAM, cationic, molecular weight 12 million, 10-30 ionicity) in China was 13,400 RMB/ton at the beginning of the year and 13,000.00 RMB/ton at the end of the year, representing an annual decrease of 2.99%. The highest point during the year was 13,440 RMB/ton on January 13th, and the lowest point was 13,000 RMB/ton on November 4th, with a maximum fluctuation of 3.27% during the year. The polyacrylamide market in 2025 showed an overall downward trend.

In 2025, the market price of polyacrylamide continued to decline, due to weak macroeconomic conditions leading to insufficient market demand, coupled with rapid capacity expansion, resulting in low industry profitability. Manufacturers in major domestic production areas maintained normal production with ample supply of spot goods. The overall price of polyacrylamide raw materials also declined, with limited supply and demand support, leading manufacturers to continuously lower prices.

Cost side: The support from raw material costs was weakening, and polyacrylamide prices were following the downward trend

Vinyl cyanide Raw Material: According to SunSirs' commodity market analysis system, the price of vinyl cyanide fell sharply in 2025. The price at the beginning of the year was 9,300 RMB/ton, and the price at the end of the year was 7,400 RMB/ton, a decrease of 20.43% compared to the beginning of the year; the highest price during the year was 11,900 RMB/ton, and the lowest was 7,400 RMB/ton, with a price fluctuation range of 37.82%.

In 2025, global vinyl cyanide production capacity reached approximately 12 million tons, with China accounting for 38% (major companies include Shanghai Secco, Ningbo Haiyue, and Shandong Haili).  Import dependence decreased to 25%. In 2026, vinyl cyanide prices are projected to remain in the range of 7,000-10,000 RMB/ton, significantly alleviating cost pressures for polyacrylamide manufacturers.

Acrylic acid, a key raw material, is the most direct reflection of the acrylic acid industry's shifted from a tight supply-demand balance to a complete oversupply in 2025. This confirms that the industry is undergoing intense supply-side adjustments. According to SunSirs' commodity market analysis system, the average price of acrylic acid in East China was 7,550 RMB/ton on January 1, 2025, and 5,850 RMB/ton on December 30, representing a 22.52% decline during the year. The lowest price of the year was 5,850 RMB/ton on December 26, and the highest price was 7,966.67 RMB/ton on May 23, with a maximum fluctuation of 26.57%.

As of the end of June 2025, China's total acrylic acid production capacity had increased to 4.4 million tons. This is mainly due to the addition of 320,000 tons of new capacity in the first half of the year. In the second half of the year, an additional 740,000 tons of planned new capacity were expected to come online. While the pace of new capacity additions may slow down in 2026, it will take time to absorb the existing surplus. In 2026, the price of mainstream products (high-grade products in East China) is expected to fluctuate between 5,800 and 7,800 RMB/ton. The bottom price (approximately 5,800 RMB/ton) will be supported by the industry's average cash cost line; if the price falls below this line, it will trigger the shutdown of more high-cost production capacity, thus reducing supply.

Supply side: China's polyacrylamide production capacity continues to grow

China is the world's largest producer of polyacrylamide, and the scale of China's polyacrylamide industry has been continuously growing in recent years. By 2025, the global polyacrylamide production capacity reached approximately 2.8 million tons per year, with China accounting for 64% (1.8 million tons per year), becoming the world's core production base. Industry concentration continues to increase, with the top ten Chinese companies (including Baomo Co., Ltd., Fumiao Technology, Shandong Baofeng, and Henan Qingshuiyuan) accounting for 67% of the production capacity. Small and medium-sized enterprises were gradually exiting the market due to environmental protection and cost pressures. By 2026, China's production capacity is expected to increase to 2.2 million tons per year, with a capacity utilization rate maintained at around 89%. The production capacity growth rate of high-end products (cationic and salt-resistant/temperature-resistant types) will reach 15%, while the growth rate of ordinary anionic polyacrylamide production capacity will slow down to 5%.

Imports and Exports: China's trade surplus in polyacrylamide further strengthens.

From January to November 2025, China's cumulative exports of polyacrylamide reached 344,600 tons, with an export value of 3.23 billion RMB. Total exports for 2025 are expected to be around 380,000 tons, a decrease of 4.5% compared to 398,000 tons in 2024. From January to November, China's cumulative imports of polyacrylamide reached 6,800 tons, with an import value of 115 million RMB. Total imports for 2025 were around 7,500 tons, a decrease of 14.8% compared to 8,800 tons in 2024, continuing the trend of increasing exports and decreasing imports. Domestic polyacrylamide production capacity expanded to 1.8 million tons in 2025 and is expected to reach 2.2 million tons in 2026. Coupled with the continuous expansion of production capacity for vinyl cyanide and acrylic acid, the main raw materials for polyacrylamide, and a decrease in import dependence, China's polyacrylamide trade surplus is expected to enter a new stage of both increased volume and value in 2026, with the surplus potentially exceeding 4 billion RMB.

Demand side: Water treatment dominates, but emerging sectors are rising.

In 2025, China's apparent consumption of polyacrylamide was around 1.35 million tons, an increase of over 8% compared to 2024, continuing the trend of "steady growth," but at a slower pace than in 2023. The total demand is projected to reach 1.45 million tons in 2026.

Water treatment (45% share): This became the largest application sector by 2025, with municipal wastewater treatment accounting for 22% of the demand (driven by stricter environmental standards under the 14th Five-Year Plan, adding 12 million tons/day of new wastewater treatment capacity), and industrial wastewater treatment accounting for 23% (high-concentration wastewater treatment in chemical, printing and dyeing, and coal chemical industries driving the demand for cationic polyacrylamide). By 2026, with the advancement of rural wastewater treatment and black and odorous water body remediation, the demand growth rate is expected to exceed 8%, with high-efficiency flocculants and sludge dewatering agents becoming key growth drivers.

Oil and gas extraction sector (21% share): Demand shows "structural differentiation," with conventional oil and gas extraction experiencing weak demand due to low oil prices (2.3% growth rate in 2026), but shale gas and deep-sea oil and gas extraction are driving demand for high-temperature and high-salinity resistant polyacrylamide (7.8% growth rate). New development projects in the Permian Basin in the United States and the Sichuan shale gas field in China will drive an increase in demand for specialty polyacrylamide by approximately 12,000 tons in 2026.

Paper industry (18% of total demand): Used for retention and drainage aids and paper strengthening. Demand reached 238,000 tons in 2025, with amphoteric polyacrylamide experiencing a growth rate exceeding 15% due to its suitability for various pulp types. In 2026, with the expected decline in pulp prices and stricter environmental regulations, the industry's demand for high-end and customized polyacrylamide will further increase.

Mining sector (10% share): Driven by the extraction of new energy metals (lithium, cobalt, and nickel ore flotation), demand reached 132,000 tons in 2025, with a projected growth rate exceeding 12% in 2026. Salt lake lithium extraction projects will add approximately 8,000 tons of polyacrylamide demand, mainly concentrated in production areas such as Qinghai and Tibet.

Emerging fields (6% of the market): These include soil remediation, food clarification, pharmaceutical wastewater treatment, and 3D printing materials. Demand reached 79,000 tons in 2025, and may continue to increase in 2026, becoming a new growth driver for the industry.

Market Outlook: Polyacrylamide is expected to continue the trend of 2025 in 2026

With the continuous increase in production capacity of raw materials vinyl cyanide and acrylic acid, and their prices remaining low, the profit margin for polyacrylamide is expanding. Driven by high-end demand in downstream industries, the proportion of cationic and amphoteric polyacrylamide will increase from 40% to 45%, while competition for ordinary products will intensify, and the risk of price wars will emerge. In terms of price, polyacrylamide exhibits the characteristic of "stable export prices and high import prices": ordinary anionic products account for over 60% of exports; imported products are mainly high-end specialty grades (such as polyacrylamide for high-temperature and high-salinity oil and gas applications), which are twice the average export price, reflecting a structural supply gap in the domestic high-end market. It is expected that polyacrylamide will continue the trend of 2025 in 2026.

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