SunSirs: Agricultural Products Industries Bulk Commodity Intelligence (January 7, 2026)

Macroeconomics

1. [Monetary Policy] The central bank: In 2026, we will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, leveraging the integrated effects of incremental and existing policies, strengthening counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments, and focusing on expanding domestic demand, optimizing supply, preventing and resolving risks, and stabilizing social expectations.

2. [Export Controls] Ministry of Commerce: In accordance with relevant provisions of the "Export Control Law of the People's Republic of China" and other laws and regulations, it has been decided to strengthen export controls on dual-use items to Japan. Exports of all dual-use items to Japanese military users, for military purposes, and to any other end-users that contribute to enhancing Japan's military capabilities are prohibited.

3. [Logistics Industry Prosperity Index] In December 2025, China's Logistics Industry Prosperity Index (LPI) was 52.4%, a month-on-month increase of 1.5 percentage points, reaching the highest level of the year. Among the main indicators, the business volume index, equipment utilization rate index, new orders index, capital turnover rate index, and employment index were all in the expansion range and continued to rise month-on-month.

4. [Federal Reserve] Federal Reserve Governor Milan stated that he expects subsequent economic data to continue to support the policy direction that "interest rate cuts are appropriate." The Federal Reserve should cut interest rates by more than 100 basis points this year. The Fed's policy is clearly restrictive and hindering economic development.

Agricultural Products

1. [White Sugar] On January 6th, the new sugar price quoted by Guangxi sugar manufacturers and distributors was 5,270-5,350 RMB/ton (ex-factory price at sugar mills in Chongzuo, Nanning, Guigang, Liuzhou, Hechi, Laibin, and Fangchenggang), a slight increase of 10 RMB/ton compared to the price on January 5th.  New sugar industrial inventory was 44,500 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 182,900 tons.

2. [Soybeans] According to the National Grain and Materials Reserve Data Center on January 6th: In December 2025, domestic oil mills maintained a high level of soybean crushing, with a total crushing volume of approximately 9.05 million tons for the month, resulting in a continuous accumulation of soybean meal inventory. In January, the arrival volume of imported soybeans decreased, and the soybean crushing volume is expected to decrease slightly to approximately 8 million tons, with a soybean meal output of about 6.4 million tons. Coupled with the approaching Spring Festival preparations, it is expected that the domestic oil mill soybean meal inventory will decrease to approximately 900,000 tons by the end of January.

3. [Soybeans] The U.S. Department of Agriculture's export inspection report shows that U.S. soybean export inspections increased by 27% compared to the previous week, but decreased by 24% year-on-year. For the week ending January 1, 2026, U.S. soybean export inspections totaled 980,518 tons, compared to a revised 773,600 tons the previous week and 1,295,819 tons in the same period last year.

4. [Corn] The U.S. Department of Agriculture's weekly export inspection report shows that U.S. corn export inspections decreased by 10% compared to the previous week, but increased by 38% year-on-year. For the week ending January 1, 2026, U.S. corn export inspections totaled 1,206,913 tons, compared to a revised 1,335,028 tons the previous week and 877,214 tons in the same period last year.

5. [Soybean Meal] The latest data from the European Commission shows that as of January 4th, EU soybean meal imports for the 2025/26 season totaled 9.32 million tons, a 10% decrease year-on-year.

6. [Grains] The Ukrainian Ministry of Agriculture stated that as of January 2nd, Ukrainian grain exports for the 2025/26 season (beginning in July) totaled 15.43 million tons, a decrease of 29.4% compared to the same period last year. 7. [Palm Oil] A Reuters survey predicts that Malaysia's palm oil exports in December will reach 1.25 million tons, a 2.8% increase compared to November.

8. [Palm Oil] Data from the Southern Peninsular Palm Oil Millers Association (SPPOMMA) shows that from December 1-31, 2025, palm oil production in Southern Malaysia decreased by 8.07% month-on-month, with fresh fruit bunch (FFB) yield decreasing by 7.39% and the oil extraction rate (OER) decreasing by 0.13%.

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