SunSirs: The Crude Oil Market Is Volatile, and the Retail Price of China Refined Oil Products Was not Adjusted Temporarily for the First Time in the New Year

The domestic refined oil price adjustment window for this round opened at 24:00 on January 6th. The retail price of refined oil was not adjusted for the time being. The retail price of refined oil achieved no increase and decrease in 2026, but was stranded. The crude oil market was mainly volatile during this cycle, and the positive change rate of crude oil narrowed. The adjustment range reached the adjustment red line of 50 RMB/ton, and the retail price adjustment of refined oil in this round stranded.

Entering this pricing cycle, the international oil price market is mainly volatile. As of the 5th, the settlement price of the February WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $58.32 per barrel, and the settlement price of the March Brent crude oil futures contract was $61.76 per barrel. During this round of price adjustment cycle, crude oil prices were mainly volatile, and the geopolitical situation in Venezuela was tense. In addition, the OPEC+ meeting officially announced the suspension of production in the first quarter of 2026, which supported the rise of the oil market with positive news; However, the weakening of US demand and the impact of US tariffs have dragged down global economic and demand expectations, suppressing international oil prices. Overall, the trend of crude oil remains volatile. As of the 6th, the change rate of crude oil varieties on the 10th working day is 1.20%, corresponding to a 40 RMB increase in domestic oil prices per ton of gasoline and diesel, which has not reached the adjustment red line of 50 RMB/ton. Therefore, the retail price of refined oil products will not be adjusted for this round.

In terms of gasoline, the operation of Shandong refineries is relatively stable, with operating rates maintained. The average operating rate of Shandong refineries is around 53%. Recently, the main refineries in the country have seen an increase in load reduction, resulting in a slight decline in operating rates, which has led to low resource inventory levels in some units. Recently, residents' travel and other activities have been normal, but with the decrease in temperature and the increase in the frequency of private car use, the demand for gasoline in the domestic market is still guaranteed. However, the continuous increase in the popularity of new energy vehicles has led to lower than expected demand performance, and the gasoline market has strong resistance to decline.

In terms of diesel: Recently, the supply side of the diesel market has been normal, and the demand side is still dominated by essential needs. The recent increase in low-temperature rain and snow weather in northern regions has hindered diesel infrastructure and logistics transportation. In addition, the use of diesel in agriculture has come to an end, and the demand for diesel has weakened compared to before. As a result, the diesel market has slightly declined.

Looking at the future, the recent actions of the United States against Venezuela have affected the crude oil market, and the escalation of geopolitical tensions is bound to push up risk premiums. Concerns about reduced crude oil supply due to geopolitical issues still support oil prices, but there is no improvement in demand for crude oil. Overall, international oil prices are expected to rise slightly in the short term, providing support for the cost of domestic refined oil markets. From a domestic perspective, the short-term refinery operating rate is relatively stable, and the supply of refined oil is normal. In addition, the news is positive, and the impact of rainy and snowy weather is expanding. The expectation of diesel demand is suppressed, and the weak diesel market is maintained. There is still support for gasoline demand, and gasoline may slightly rise.

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