SunSirs:. The Household Paper Market Under the 14th Five-Year Plan: Market Capacity Expected to Continue Growing Over the Next Five Years

In 2023, the global household paper market demonstrated steady growth. Per capita consumption levels remain high in developed countries, while China—the world's largest consumer market—still maintains relatively low per capita usage. According to statistics from Zhuochuang Information, the industry boasts substantial ongoing and planned production capacity. Driven by policy support and consumption upgrades, China's household paper market is projected to expand further over the next five years. However, challenges such as slowing economic growth and approaching capacity saturation may narrow the growth potential for both supply and consumption, though significant opportunities remain.

The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China conducted an in-depth analysis of the international and domestic landscape, formulating the 15th Five-Year Plan for national economic and social development. It further proposed striving for another five years beyond the 15th Five-Year Plan to achieve significant leaps in China's economic strength, scientific and technological capabilities, national defense capabilities, comprehensive national power, and international influence by 2035. By then, per capita GDP is projected to reach the level of moderately developed countries, with people enjoying happier and more fulfilling lives, and socialist modernization essentially realized.

As a livelihood industry closely tied to daily consumer spending, the household paper sector has demonstrated steady growth in recent years, driven by China's economic development. This momentum will continue to fuel rising consumption of household paper products. From 2021 to 2025, China's household paper consumption is projected to maintain an upward trajectory. Against the backdrop of overall market planning and ongoing national stimulus for domestic consumption, how will the household paper market scale evolve?

In 2023, global annual per capita paper consumption reached 4.87 kilograms, marking a 1.07% increase from 2022 and maintaining a steady growth trajectory. Finland ranked first in per capita household paper consumption at 35 kilograms, rising from second place in 2022. Canada ranked second with approximately 32 kilograms per capita, showing a slight decrease from 2022. Sweden, Slovenia, the United States, Italy, Slovakia, and Greece maintained annual per capita household paper consumption at 20 kilograms or higher in 2023. Countries with high per capita paper consumption are predominantly developed nations or those with rapidly growing GDP per capita. While China led in total household paper consumption in 2023, its per capita usage remained relatively low at 8.28 kilograms due to its massive population base.

From the perspective of overall planning objectives, per capita GDP is projected to reach the level of a moderately developed country by 2023, indicating a significant increase in overall consumption capacity. Consequently, economic growth and consumption will continue to drive the rise in household paper consumption, thereby fueling the expansion of the industry's scale. Based on per capita usage estimates derived from household paper consumption data published by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), developed countries exhibit the highest per capita household paper usage, followed by moderately developed countries. Countries defined as moderately developed include Greece, Portugal, Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, Mexico, and others. Their per capita household paper consumption generally exceeds 10 kilograms per person, with the highest reaching 20 kilograms per person. Currently, China's per capita household paper consumption remains around 9 kilograms per person, indicating significant room for overall consumption growth. To reach the average per capita consumption of 15 kilograms per person seen in moderately developed countries, China's average per capita consumption still has a potential increase of 6 kilograms. Assuming the population base remains unchanged and per capita consumption levels rise as expected, household paper consumption could grow by approximately 8 million tons. However, amid multiple pressures including slowing economic growth, demographic shifts, and industry capacity approaching saturation, future consumption growth potential is narrowing. Concurrently, factors such as the ongoing impact of geopolitical conflicts, accelerated domestic manufacturers' shift toward emerging sectors and overseas markets, and gradually increasing international supply capacity may result in total household paper consumption slightly undershooting the aforementioned growth potential.

According to current statistics from Zhuochuang Information, over 9 million tons of household paper projects are under construction or planned. Consequently, as new capacity continuously enters the market, the production scale of household paper will continue to expand. However, the current capacity utilization rate remains relatively low. With some long-term idle or outdated capacity facing elimination, the overall market supply growth potential may be slightly constrained. Considering the combined trends of production capacity and consumption growth, along with historical average growth rates, the household paper market is projected to continue its expansion over the next five years. By 2030, total production capacity is expected to reach 27.02 million tons, with consumption volume reaching 14.08 million tons.

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