SunSirs:The Seamless Tube Market Saw a Slight Increase Last Week (December 15-19)

Price trend:

According to data from SunSirs, seamless tube prices rose slightly last week. As of the end of the week, the price of 20# 108*4.5 seamless tube was 4,112 RMB/ton, an increase of 1.23% compared to the beginning of the week, but a decrease of 1.63% year-on-year.

Market Analysis

Last week, the price of steel billets rose slightly, with the ex-factory price of 20# hot-rolled steel billets quoted at 3,250-3,340 RMB/ton. The main contracts for coking coal and coke saw a significant increase in open interest and rose by over 5%, significantly strengthening the cost support signal from the raw material side and providing temporary support for the seamless tube spot market.

Due to recent policies aimed at controlling severe air pollution, approximately half of the seamless tube production lines in the Liaocheng area were temporarily shut down for maintenance. Against this backdrop of reduced supply, local tube manufacturers were maintaining their original prices, and traders were mainly selling at listed prices, leading to tighter supply for some specifications. As of December 19, market demand remained weak, exhibiting typical characteristics of the off-season. The continued low temperatures in northern China had resulted in low operating rates for infrastructure projects, and limited outdoor construction was hindering any improvement in demand for tubes. End-users were mostly making small, essential purchases to maintain basic production.

Last week, the national inventory of seamless tubes was 380,000 tons, a decrease of 8,000 tons compared to the previous week. Steel mill inventory was 730,000 tons, a decrease of 19,000 tons compared to the previous week.

Market Outlook:

Overall, although market sentiment and policy support provided short-term boosts, weak terminal demand during the off-season and the unresolved supply-demand imbalanced, coupled with limited support from raw material costs, suggest that seamless tube prices are expected to remain largely stable with minor fluctuations in the short term.

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