SunSirs: Twelfth Reduction in Retail Prices of China Refined Oil Products

The domestic refined oil price adjustment window opened at 24:00 on December 22, and the zero selling price of refined oil has been lowered again. The retail price of refined oil in 2025 has experienced seven upward adjustments, eleven downward adjustments, and six stranded adjustments. During this cycle, the crude oil market has declined, and the crude oil change rate has remained negative. The zero selling price adjustment of refined oil in 2025 has encountered the "twelfth" downward adjustment.

The current adjustment of refined oil prices is affected by the decline in the crude oil market, resulting in a negative change rate of crude oil and a decrease in gasoline retail prices. This indicates that the supply cost in the spot market has decreased, and the pressure on the demand side has increased, posing significant downward pressure on spot prices. Based on the cumulative trend of eleven downward adjustments by 2025, the market sentiment is bearish, and it is expected that short-term spot prices will be under pressure, with strong negative factors.

The decline in crude oil prices has driven the adjustment of refined oil prices, resulting in a decrease in diesel retail prices. The negative change rate of crude oil reflects the weakening of cost support, coupled with multiple downward adjustments throughout the year, the spot market is facing weak demand and inventory pressure. Analysis shows that this downward adjustment has strengthened negative expectations, increased the risk of spot price decline, and generally had a negative impact on the market.

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