SunSirs: PTA Prices Fluctuated Upwards

Price trend:

According to the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, the domestic PTA market has shown a fluctuating upward trend since November. As of November 20, the spot price of PTA in East China was 4,656 RMB/ton, an increase of 2.48% compared with the beginning of the month. Benefiting from the relaxation of certification by India's BIS, coupled with the early maintenance of some PTA plants due to unforeseen circumstances, the upstream supply structure has been improved and export growth is expected to be boosted. However, the market lacked new drivers, so the overall price increase is not significant.

Market Analysis

Looking ahead, the oversupply in the crude oil market naturally drives oil prices downward. However, geopolitical factors continue to inject uncertainty into the market, offsetting the downward pressure from oversupply to some extent. Oil prices are expected to maintain a volatile and fluctuating pattern, and will likely continue to exhibit high volatility in the short term. As of November 19th, the settlement price for the December contract of US WTI crude oil futures was $59.44 per barrel, and the settlement price for the January contract of Brent crude oil futures was $63.51 per barrel.

On the PTA supply side, Sichuan Energy Investment's 1 million-ton unit was shut down as planned, Xinjiang Zhongtai's 1.2 million-ton unit had increased its operating rate to 70%, and Yisheng Ningbo's 2.2 million-ton unit shut down on November 20. The domestic industry's operating rate was around 71%. In the short term, PTA processing fees will remain low, and inventory levels will remain low.

India's BIS (British Institute for Standards and Technology) cancelled its certification, leading to a significant improvement in inquiries from downstream polyester filament manufacturers. This, coupled with the restart of some polyester plants and planned to bring new polyester capacity into operation, had driven a recovery in PTA demand. In the short term, polyester prices will remain supported by increased costs and expectations of increased Indian polyester exports.

Market Forecast:

According to analysts at SunSirs, PTA plants were scheduled for maintenance this month, downstream polyester demand maintained, and PTA supply and demand continued to decline, keeping prices relatively stronger. However, as demand seasonally declines and end-user operating rates slowly decrease, the upward momentum of PTA prices will be hampered.

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