SunSirs: The Crude Oil Market Is Rising, and the Price of China Local Refined Gasoline and Diesel Has Slightly Increased

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the price of locally refined gasoline and diesel in Shandong Province has slightly increased this week. As of the 17th, the domestic price of 92# gasoline was 7,138.6 RMB/ton, with a price increase of 0.89% this week; The domestic price of 0# diesel is 6,587.6 RMB/ton, and the price trend has increased by 0.76% this week.

Cost aspect: The rise in crude oil prices has led to an increase in refined oil products

The price trend of the crude oil market has risen. As of the 14th, the settlement price of the December WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $60.09 per barrel, and the settlement price of the January Brent crude oil futures contract was $64.39 per barrel. The crude oil market is affected by both long and short factors. On the one hand, OPEC+oil producing countries have increased production in a new round, and the market is still concerned about the long-term risk of oversupply, which has suppressed the crude oil market; However, geopolitical factors have led to a decrease in Russian supply, and coupled with the easing of US tariffs, this news is positive for the international crude oil market, with the crude oil market trending upwards. The crude oil market directly affects the domestic refined oil market, with domestic gasoline and diesel prices slightly rising.

Supply side: Shandong local refining plant starts production to maintain normal supply of refined oil products

Recently, some facilities in the local refining industry have increased their operating load, but the operating rate has not changed much. The average operating rate of Shandong's local refining industry is around 54%, while the operating rate of the country's main refineries remains at around 85%. The supply of refined oil from local refining industries has been maintained, and there has been little change in the supply of Shandong's gasoline and diesel. The market for Shandong's gasoline and diesel industry has fluctuated widely.

Demand side: Demand is still acceptable, and the overall market for gasoline and diesel has slightly increased

In terms of gasoline, residents' travel and other activities are mainly normal. In addition, the recent rise in the crude oil market has made it difficult for domestic gasoline terminal consumption to increase, resulting in relatively stable demand. However, the increasing popularity of new energy vehicles has led to lower than expected demand performance, resulting in a slight increase in gasoline prices. In terms of diesel, the supply side of the diesel market has been normal recently, and the demand side is still dominated by basic needs. As the agricultural autumn harvest is coming to an end, the consumption of agricultural oil has increased compared to before. The demand for infrastructure and logistics is average. In addition, the fishing ban in the north has ended, and there has been an increase in ship oil compared to before. In addition, diesel in the northern region has been converted to -10 # diesel, which has led to a slight rise in the diesel market.

The supply side risks of crude oil have not been eliminated in the near future, and international oil prices are mainly weakly fluctuating in the short term, which has limited cost support for the domestic refined oil market. From a domestic perspective, the short-term refinery operating rate is relatively stable, the supply of refined oil is loose, and the news is biased towards bearish or limiting market sentiment. In addition, with the increasing impact of winter atmosphere, the expectation of diesel demand is suppressed, and the demand for gasoline is also difficult to improve.

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