SunSirs: Exclusive | "Global Mining Development Report 2025" Series No.9 - Summary and Outlook of Global Mining Development

2025 is the year of completion for China's 14th Five-Year Plan. Over the past five years, the COVID-19 pandemic has swept the globe, geopolitical conflicts have been intensifying, and the acceleration of energy transition and technological revolution has added to the impact. The global mining industry has thus begun a new cycle, and the great power resource game has become increasingly fierce. Over the next five years, the development of the mining industry will not only be limited to the struggle for resources, but will also involve comprehensive competition in the dimensions of technology, green, and governance. The global mining industry will seek a dynamic balance between safety and innovation, competition and symbiosis.

01 The development trend of the global mining industry during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period

First, the global economy and mining development are facing uncertainties and imbalances. Under the backdrop of the world's unprecedented changes in a century, the impact of the century-old epidemic is profound, the anti-globalization trend is on the rise, the risk of protectionism is increasing, geopolitical conflicts are intensifying, and trade tensions are escalating. The world economy is showing characteristics such as insufficient momentum, growth imbalance, and accelerated fragmentation. Global mining is struggling to move forward amid multiple uncertainties, the adjustment of the mining pattern and regional differentiation are intensifying, the supply and consumption of mineral resources continue to increase, the overall trend of mineral product prices is downward, and mining profit margins are declining. Second, the global mining industry chain and supply chain are accelerating restructuring under the impact of geopolitical factors. In the past five years, global geopolitical conflicts have been upgrading, triggering a global energy and resource crisis. The global mining industry chain and supply chain have been deeply restructuring, and the core of global mining competition has shifted from "scale expansion + efficiency first" to "resilient restructuring + controllable security" of the industry chain and supply chain. Third, contradictions in the global supply and demand structure are intensifying under the new cycle of mining development. Under the new cycle of mining development, the global pattern of supply and demand of mineral resources is experiencing a deep evolution, presenting contradictions such as demand differentiation between traditional bulk solid minerals and new energy minerals, short-term oversupply and long-term shortage of new energy minerals, and deep fragmentation of regional mining markets. Traditional bulk solid minerals are gradually entering a weak cycle dominated by weak demand and oversupply, and the demand growth momentum of energy minerals continues to decline; the demand for new energy minerals is expanding rapidly, but the short-term oversupply has led to downward pressure on prices, and there is a gap in long-term supply. Fourth, intelligence and greening have become the main theme of mining transformation and development. The new round of technological revolution and industrial transformation represented by AI, big data, and the Internet of Things continues to deepen, and the global major economies continue to increase the strategic layout of intelligent mines and green mines, comprehensively promoting the transformation and development of the mining industry towards intelligence and greening. In recent years, green mine technology and intelligent mechanical equipment have emerged in endlessly, and the global market size of intelligent mines and green mines has rapidly expanded, dual-wheel drive empowering high-quality development of the mining industry.

02 Outlook for the global mining industry in the "15th Five-Year Plan" period

First, the strategic layout for ensuring the security of key mineral resources in major countries is upgraded. With the continuous expansion of mineral demand, such as new energy, the major-country competition in the mining field will be further deepened. Countries are focusing on building a "self-reliant, controllable, and diversified" supply chain system, and through distinctive strategic paths such as alliance, localization, and rule access, they are gradually shifting from the competition for resource reserves to the competition for the formulation of mining market rules. Second, technological innovation-driven innovation in the development paradigm of the global mining industry. Technological innovation has become a key variable in the game of international mining cooperation, and the future of the mining industry will witness a transformation from "resource-driven" to "technology-governance" dual-wheel drive. Technological innovation will promote the global mining industry from "labor-intensive" to "data-driven, intelligent-led, and green and sustainable" technology-intensive industries. Third, the century-old changes reshape the global resource governance cooperation pattern. The next five years will be a critical window period for building a new order of global resource governance. Global resource governance will present a new pattern: the main body of governance will be more diversified, from "Western dominance" to gradually shift to "alliance competition"; governance rules will accelerate evolution, and new norms and standards will gradually take shape; the empowering role of cutting-edge technology will be more prominent, greatly improving governance efficiency. Fourth, the community of mining destiny promotes global sustainable development. Countries should strengthen mutually beneficial cooperation in key mineral fields, jointly maintain the stability and smoothness of the industrial and supply chains, build a community of mining destiny together, solve global resource dilemmas, achieve sustainable development, and contribute to world economic growth.

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