SunSirs: Polyester Filament Prices Fell First and Then Rose Last Week, with Overall Stability and Adjustment (October 20-24)

Price trend

According to last week's polyester filament market, which saw a period of initial decline followed by a rebound, the overall market was showing signs of stability with some adjustments. Market supply and demand had improved, and prices are expected to remain volatile and stronger in the short term. As of October 17, mainstream polyester filament mills in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces were quoting prices for POY (150D/48F) at 6,400-6,700 RMB/ton, polyester DTY (150D/48F low-stretch) at 7,750-8,000 RMB/ton, and polyester FDY (150D/96F) at 6,500-6,800 RMB/ton.

At the beginning of the week, the polyester filament market showed an overall downward trend, with prices shifting downward. On October 20th, polyester POY, FDY, and DTY prices all fell to varying degrees. Polyester POY was 6,750 RMB/ton, a daily decrease of -2.61%, polyester FDY was 6,826.67 RMB/ton, a daily decrease of -2.52%, and polyester DTY was 7,931.25 RMB/ton, a daily decrease of -1.86%. This was primarily due to the weak upstream polyester raw material market, insufficient cost support, and cautious downstream purchasing, resulting in a sluggish market environment.

Starting from Wednesday, market conditions shifted, with polyester filament prices stabilizing and recovering in some areas. On October 23rd, driven by rising international oil prices and a positive fabric market, some polyester mills reduced their polyester filament discounts or raised their prices by 50-100 RMB/ton. On October 24th, Rongsheng Petrochemical raised some semi-gloss DTY prices by 50-100 RMB/ton, while both POY and FDY prices increased by 50 RMB/ton, with some FDY prices increasing by 100 RMB/ton. The buyout price for chips was also raised by 50 RMB/ton.

Analysis review

The turning point was mainly reflected in two aspects:

Cost support strengthened: International oil prices rebounded significantly between October 22nd and 23rd. This increase in polymerization costs squeezed the profit margins of polyester filament manufacturers, leading to a significant increase in companies' willingness to maintain prices and a reduction in negotiated prices for some low-end products.

Demand Boosted: According to news on October 23rd, the arrival of cold fronts triggered a rebound in demand for winter fabrics, with strong demand driving increased production and sales. For example, on October 21st, the average production-sales ratio of polyester filament sample companies soared to 367.9%. This rebound in production and sales meant that factory inventory pressures had eased, further supporting prices.

Based on the above factors, on October 24, most polyester filament factories in Jiangsu Province raised their quotations or reduced discounts, ranging from 50 to 100 RMB/ton.

Market outlook

As of October 24, polyester mills maintained high inventories of polyester filament, and greige fabric inventories were significantly higher than the same period last year. Weaving mills were generally operating within production quotas and were cautious in purchasing. However, as market conditions improved, polyester manufacturers were adjusting their quotes to capture market share, improving market sentiment and increasing the willingness of some companies to maintain prices. Overall, polyester filament prices are expected to remain volatile and tend to be stronger in the short term.

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