SunSirs: Stainless Steel Prices Fell Slightly Last Week (October 13-17)

Price trend

According to SunSirs price monitoring, stainless steel prices fell before rising last week. As of September 17, the average daily price of 304/2B stainless steel plate (1.0*1219*2438mm, tolerance 0.91) was 12,078.57 RMB/ton, down 0.06% from the beginning of the week and down 7.24% year-on-year.

According to the price difference analysis tool of SunSirs, the prices of nickel and stainless steel are basically similar, and the prices of nickel and stainless steel have both fallen recently. 

Analysis review

Last week, stainless steel inventories totaled 1.0412 million tons, down 1.2% from the previous week. Among them, cold rolled inventories increased while hot rolled inventories decreased.

Raw material prices remained firm. A tender for 1.4% nickel ore from the Eramen mine in Zambales, Philippines, was awarded at a price of $43.5 FOB. Nickel ore supply in Indonesia was generally abundant, with the October (Phase II) domestic trade benchmark price projected to increase by $0.06-0.11. Domestic premiums temporarily remained at +26. Ferronickel prices remained stable, with market quotes concentrated between 945 and 950 RMB per nickel (bottom bilge tax included). Limited market activity suggests significant price discrepancies between supply and demand. Ferrochrome demand and costs were driving positive industry sentiment, with Tsingshan Steel's tender meeting expectations for price increases.

Supply and Demand: Forty-three domestic stainless steel mills estimated crude steel production in September to be 3.4513 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 135,700 tons, or 4.09%, and a year-on-year increase of 5.07%. 300-series stainless steel production reached 1.8148 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 76,900 tons, or 4.42%, and a year-on-year increase of 8.2%. October production was scheduled to be 3.488 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 1.06% and a year-on-year increase of 5.99%. Of this total, 300-series stainless steel production reached 1.8217 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 0.38% and a year-on-year increase of 7.86%. Peak season demand had yet to materialize, with weak demand in traditional downstream sectors and an overall downward trend in growth expected in emerging downstream sectors. This had increased bargaining power for traders, but remained difficult to increase production.

Market outlook

Firm raw material prices still provided cost support, but as of October 17, downstream peak season demand was falling short of expectations, putting inventory pressure on the market. Stainless steel prices are expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term.

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