SunSirs: The Rate of Change Has Turned from Positive to Negative, and the Retail Price of China Refined Oil Products Has Been Lowered in This Round

The domestic refined oil price adjustment window will open at 24:00 on October 13th. The retail price of refined oil in this round is about to be lowered. In 2025, the retail price of refined oil has experienced six upward adjustments, seven downward adjustments, and six stranded adjustments. During this cycle, the crude oil market first rose and then fell, and the crude oil change rate turned from positive to negative. The retail price adjustment of refined oil in 2025 will encounter the "eighth" downward adjustment.

Entering this pricing cycle, the international oil price market first rose and then fell. As of the 10th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $58.90 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $62.73 per barrel. During this round of price adjustment cycle, the crude oil price market first rose and then fell. On the one hand, geopolitical factors are still one of the important factors affecting the crude oil market. The geopolitical factors between Russia and Ukraine are tense, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut stimulates the crude oil market to rise; On the other hand, OPEC+has launched a new round of production increase of 1.65 million barrels per day, and the market is still concerned about the long-term risk of oversupply. The easing of the Palestinian Israeli situation, coupled with weakened US demand, has dragged down global economic and demand expectations due to US tariff issues, leading to a rapid decline in international oil prices. As of the 13th, the change rate of crude oil varieties on the 10th working day was -1.40%, corresponding to a reduction of 75 RMB per ton of gasoline and 70 RMB per ton of diesel in domestic oil prices, equivalent to 89# 0.05 RMB, 92# 0.06 RMB, 95# 0.06 RMB, and 0# 0.06 RMB per liter.

In terms of gasoline, the operating load of some facilities in the local refining industry has been increased, and the operating rate has slightly increased. The average operating rate of Shandong's local refining industry is around 54.5%, while the operating rate of the country's main refineries remains at around 86%. The supply of refined oil products from local refining industry has slightly increased. The National Day holiday has ended, and residents' travel and other activities are mainly normal. In addition, the recent decline in the crude oil market has intensified the wait-and-see atmosphere in the domestic gasoline market, resulting in further setbacks in transactions. In addition, the increasing popularity of new energy vehicles has led to lower than expected demand performance, resulting in a volatile decline in the gasoline market.

In terms of diesel: Recently, there has been a slight increase in the supply side of the diesel market. In terms of demand, there has been an increase in rainy weather, which has weakened the terminal demand. Recently, the agricultural autumn harvest has gradually begun, and the consumption of agricultural oil has increased compared to before. The demand for infrastructure and logistics is average. After the end of the fishing ban in the north in September, there has been an increase in ship oil compared to before. Both long and short factors have jointly affected the diesel market, and the diesel market is mainly fluctuating and declining.

Looking ahead, the recent peak season for traditional fuel consumption in the United States has ended, and supply side risks have not been eliminated. International oil prices are mainly fluctuating in the short term, which weakens the cost support for the domestic refined oil market. From a domestic perspective, the operating rate of refineries in the short term has continued to increase, and the supply of refined oil products has become loose. In addition, there has been no significant increase in gasoline demand, resulting in mainly fluctuating and declining gasoline market prices; The demand for diesel has increased compared to before, and diesel prices may fluctuate mainly in the later period.

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