SunSirs:Stainless Steel Market Prices Continue Range-Bound Fluctuations in the Short Term

The stainless steel market in China exhibited wide-ranging oscillations in September 2025, with prices edging up modestly amid a tug-of-war between cost support and subdued demand. According to SunSirs' price monitoring, spot prices ended the month at 12,132.86 CNY/ton, a 0.33% increase from 12,092.86 CNY/ton at the beginning, though down 2.99% year-on-year. This performance aligns with historical patterns, as SunSirs' five-year comparison indicates September typically sees price upticks. However, the anticipated "Golden September" peak season fell short, with absolute demand levels underperforming expectations. Mid-month insights show stainless steel futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange settling around 12,890 CNY/ton, reflecting volatility driven by raw material strength. Globally, the market faced similar pressures, with Northeast Asia experiencing softened demand in construction and manufacturing sectors by Q3 end.

Raw materials provided firm cost backing in a "strong nickel, firm chrome, stable molybdenum" configuration. High nickel pig iron prices fluctuated narrowly at 955-960 CNY/nickel point, bolstered by resilient Philippine ore pricing and minor Indonesian benchmark increases. High-carbon ferrochrome held strong at 8,500-8,700 CNY/50 base tons, with active trading and mill orders extending into October, signaling producer confidence. Molybdenum ferro remained steady at 278,000 CNY/ton, offering neutral impact on molybdenum-containing grades like 316L. These dynamics echoed broader trends, where mid-2025 saw stainless steel prices influenced by supply chain adjustments and regional variations.

On the supply-demand front, the market showed "slight supply growth, moderate demand improvement, and declining inventories." Mills ramped up output enthusiasm, with national cold-rolled stainless production scheduled at 151.56 million tons, up from August's 148.29 million tons, led by the 300-series at 78.45 million tons. Demand saw seasonal ring-on-ring gains from the peak period, but terminal sectors like engineering and fabrication relied on just-in-time purchases, lacking widespread stockpiling. This tempered enthusiasm contributed to the season's shortfall. Inventory levels provided some relief, with national mainstream social stocks dropping for four consecutive weeks to 98.71 million tons by September 18, ending the month at 98.4 million tons—a 6.6% decline from the start. This orderly destocking eased merchant pressures.

In summary, September's market navigated cost-demand tensions with oscillatory trends, underscoring the peak season's inadequacy. For October, the interplay between sustained cost support and demand resilience remains pivotal. Short-term prices are expected to persist in range-bound oscillations, potentially around 12,000-13,000 CNY/ton, absent significant demand upticks. Globally, Q4 2025 forecasts suggest consolidation, with prices stabilizing due to balanced supply-demand and raw material recoveries, though oversupply risks loom. The global market is projected to grow at 6.1% CAGR through 2034, reaching $348.95 billion by then, driven by emerging economies like India. Stakeholders should monitor downstream orders and raw material volatility for strategic adjustments, with environmental and trade factors adding uncertainty.

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