SunSirs: Alumina Market Overview for the First Half of 2025

During the first half of 2025, domestic alumina prices shifted downward amid factors including gradually easing raw material supply and multiple shifts in the supply-demand landscape. In the first quarter, mounting pressure from oversupply led to significant price declines. By the second quarter, expanded losses across the alumina industry triggered phased production adjustments, easing supply-demand tensions and gradually stabilizing prices. The average price of the main domestic alumina futures contract in the first half of 2025 was 3,192 yuan per ton, representing an 8.7% year-on-year decrease. Internationally, while alumina prices followed a similar overall trend to the domestic market, the decline was more pronounced. Substantial new capacity additions and restarted production overseas contributed to relatively ample supply, exerting downward pressure on international alumina prices.

In the first half of 2025, domestic alumina supply maintained a tight balance, with production alternating between cuts and increases, resulting in a slight year-on-year rise in output. China recorded a net export pattern for alumina during this period, alleviating some domestic supply pressure. Cumulative exports reached 1.34 million tons, up 65.7% year-on-year, with net exports totaling 1.075 million tons.

In the second half of 2025, as costs in the alumina industry stabilize and profits gradually recover, supply is expected to rise slightly compared to the first half. Concurrently, demand may see modest growth, with prices anticipated to return to fundamentals. The overall supply-demand balance in the industry is projected to remain stable.

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