SunSirs: Domestic Urea Market Weakened and Fell in August

Price trend

According to the SunSirs commodity market analysis system, as of August 28, the average reference price of urea in the domestic market was 1,717 RMB/ton, a 5.24% decrease from the average reference price of 1,812 RMB/ton on August 1.

Analysis review

Supply and Demand

The domestic urea market saw a weak decline this month. In the first half of the month, domestic urea prices were primarily downward. Urea futures prices fell, and the spot market followed suit. Urea supply was ample, but demand was relatively weak. In the middle of the month, domestic urea prices rose slightly. Market inventories remained high, and futures prices rose. Later in the month, domestic urea prices fell sharply. The weak futures market conditions coincided with the autumn off-season for agricultural urea demand. Urea market trading sentiment weakened, with downstream purchases limited, and no significant improvement in demand.

Market Situation

As of August 28, urea market prices in Shandong were around 1,680-1,720 RMB/ton, in Hebei 1,690-1,730 RMB/ton, in Henan 1,660-1,720 RMB/ton, and in Liaoning 1,740 RMB/ton.

According to the weekly K-line chart from June 2, 2024 to August 18, 2025, domestic urea prices have experienced both ups and downs within the cycle. In August, domestic urea prices fell significantly, with the largest drop of 1.1% in the week of August 4.

Market outlook

Urea analysts of SunSirs believe that the recent urea market has rebounded slightly after a period of continuous decline. As of August 28, urea supply remained high, agricultural demand was weakening, and downstream demand was primarily focused on replenishment, with low purchasing enthusiasm. Domestic urea prices are expected to remain weak and consolidate in the short term.

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