SunSirs: Positive News Continued to Emerge, TDI Rose Strongly

Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the domestic TDI market stopped falling and rose in July. With the support of multiple favorable factors, the TDI market ushered in a wave of upward momentum. On July 1st, the average market price in East China was 11,733 RMB/ton, and on July 17th, the average price was 13,366 RMB/ton, an increase of 13.92% during the period and a decrease of 0.5% year-on-year.

Analysis review

In July, the upward trend in the domestic TDI market intensified, mainly influenced by news and supply factors. Starting from the beginning of the month, the payment price for North China's major factories in July was 15,000 RMB/ton, with an increase of 1,000 RMB/ton; Due to the concentrated delivery of export orders, limited supply was implemented in July; Northern manufacturers had exceeded their orders in Southeast Asia, and TDI planned to increase their prices by $100/ton for new orders in July; Subsequently, a sudden change in BASF's TDI plant in South Korea caused a delay in shipment, and the Southeast Asian market immediately began limited supply; Xinjiang Juli and Gansu Yinguang had successively announced parking and maintenance plans. Due to abnormal changes in foreign equipment and excessive orders from domestic manufacturers, major factories successively stopped reporting, restricted purchases, and raised prices, resulting in a significant increase in TDI prices. As of this Thursday, the price of domestically produced goods in East China had risen to 13,700-14,200 RMB/ton, and the price of Shanghai goods had risen to 14,000-14,500 RMB/ton.

Supply side: Gansu Yinguang's 150,000 tons/year TDI plant will shut down at the end of the month, taking about 10-15 days; Wanhua Fujian plant shutdown maintenance, lasting for 45 days; Covestro's factory in Domagen, Germany was affected by an electrical fire on July 12th, causing force majeure in TDI raw material supply; BASF TDI plant in South Korea was experiencing abnormal changes, resulting in delayed shipments and limited supply in Southeast Asia.

Future outlook:

The high price of TDI had exceeded 14,000 RMB/ton. On the 18th, a TDI manufacturer in the north raised the payment price for July by another 4,500 RMB/ton to 18,500 RMB/ton. Under the influence of overseas equipment changes, force majeure, and centralized maintenance, the tight supply of TDI will continue for a period of time, and it is expected that the TDI market will continue to rise in the short term.

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